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Wigan is the heaviest favorite in this Tuesday Championship round, but the odds for a home win might just be too low and backing Millwall apparently has some value here. However, the preview is the one who will tell the story.
Wigan has one of the best teams in the league and was widely expected to get promoted at the end of the season. A horrible run in the start of the season made this virtually impossible, but Wigan recovered with a dream run in 2014 to reach the 5th place in the standings and virtually assure a place in the playoffs. However, the hosts lost some form recently, as they got their first win in 4 games last round, 1-0 at home against 16th placed Leeds. Wigan is set to play their match of the season on Saturday against Arsenal in the FA Cup semifinals, reaching this stage after the amazing 2-1 away win at City.
Millwall is in a world of trouble right now. The visitors are on the second to last place in the standings, 2 points away from the safety zone but also with 2 extra games played, so it`s mandatory for them to get points in this game. Millwall seemed all but doomed two rounds ago, but 4 points in the last 2 matches gave them home, especially if they continue the good run of form. Millwall got a shock 2-1 away win against 7th placed Nottingham Forrest last round, so they will be confident coming into this Wigan game.
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Team news & lineups
Wigan will have to do without McCann and Watson in this game, while Millwall won`t be able to count on Shitty, with DJ Campbell and Easter having to undergo late fitness tests.
Wigan: Al Habsi – Perch, Kiernan, Ramis, Beausejour – McClean, McArthur, Tunnicliffe, Maloney – Powell, Fortune
Millwall: Forde – Edwards, Dunne, Beevers, Malone – Upson, Bailey, Garvan – Martin, Woolford – Easter
Surely Wigan is the better team here, but the Championship is such a balanced and unpredictable division that circumstances are key in predicting the outcome – and Millwall has a lot going for them today. Firstly, they played better football than Wigan in the last two games and are in better short term form. Secondly, Wigan is not really the scariest home team, and that is because their counter attacking style of play suits better on the road. The hosts won 11 of 20 games at the DW Stadium this season with a 32-20 goal difference, not too impressive for the 5th placed team in the table. Most importantly, Wigan has a huge match against Arsenal in just 4 days, so that`s obviously their priority right now, especially since they are bound to play the playoffs – no chance to drop out of them or gain direct promotion. Millwall is much more motivated for this game and already defeated Wigan 2-1 at home this season. All in all a bet on the visitors seems the logical choice here, especially at this kind of odds. My tip is Millwall +0,75 handicap. Prediction: Wigan Athletic – Milwall 1-1.
Pick: Milwall (+0,75 Asian Handicap)
Odds: 2.12 @ Sbobet
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 8.96
Event date: 8 April
