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Wolfsburg will be fired up to overtake Leverkusen for the last Champions League spot this round, while Freiburg will be a little more relaxed after mathematically escaping relegation last round.
Wolfsburg is 1 point behind Leverkusen in the standings with 3 rounds to go in the Bundesliga, but Bayer has a massive test against Dortmund today so Wolfsburg will know that a win will most likely send them to the 4th spot. The home side is in excellent form as of late, winning 4 of the last 6 games in all competition and only losing 2 tight games with Dortmund. Wolfsburg continued the push for that last UCL place last round beating Hanburg 3-1. The 10-2-3 home record that the wolves have is 3rd best in the Bundesliga, only behind Bayern and Schalke.
Freiburg managed to avoid the drop with some excellent performances in the last few weeks, stepping it up when it really mattered – much like Wolfsburg. The visitors won 3 of their last 4 games and lost only once in the last 7 encounters. On the other hand, Freiburg never really played against such a strong opponent like the one they are facing today.
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Team news & lineups.
Ivica Olic has just signed a new contract with Wolfsburg and will again lead the attacking line. The hosts will miss Benaglio, Malanda, Gustavo and Dost. Freiburg will have to do without Mujzda, Pilar, Sorg and Klaus.
Wolfsburg: Grun – Trasch, Naldo, Knoche, Rodriguez – Medojevic, Polak – De Bruyne, Arnold, Perisic – Olic
Freiburg: Baumann – Schmid, Krmas, Ginter, Gunter – Freis, Schuster, Darida, Fernandes – Guede, Mehmedi
Wolfsburg is the better team of course and with the motivation they have they should win the game. However the odds for the “1” sign are rather low and even though Freiburg has nothing left to play for, you have to respect their current form. I think the over 3,5 goals is the best bet here because, besides the fact that both teams are playing offensive football right now, the circumstances are perfect. Wolfsburg needs points like air so they will attack from the start and with their goalscoring options up front they should be able to bag a few goals. On the other hand, Freiburg will play without pressure, they will be more relaxed and with the form and morale they have surely they will pose a great threat on counters. Also there are a couple of key defensive players missing from both sides and that should help. My tip is over 3,5 goals. Prediction: Wolfsburg – Freiburg 3-2.
Pick: over 3,5 goals
Odds: 2.09 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 7
Possible profit: 7.63
Event date: 26 April
