Wolfsburg – Hamburg

Wolfsburg and Hamburg will battle it out in a very interesting game at Volkswagen Arena, with both sides looking for nothing less than the three points.

Wolfsburg had a fine season until now and it is not surprising, as the team was favored to finish on an Europa League spot prior to the start in Bundesliga. The hosts are on 5th place, 7 wins, 1 draw, 5 losses and they are in excellent form, winning 4 consecutive games until drawing 1-1 at Nurnberg in the last round. Wolfsburg has a couple of injuries and suspensions but nothing really major. Diego is questionable, Trasch, Vieirina and Koo Ja-Cheol are unavailable.

Wolfsburg lineup: Benaglio – Ochs, Naldo, Knoche, Rodriguez – Medojevic, Gustavo – Caligiuri, Arnold, Perisic – Olic

Hamburg had a season to forget until now. The team is on the 11th place with just 15 points, but they can climb as high as the 8th place with a win at Volkswagen Arena. The main and basically only reason for which Hamburg performed so poor is their defense: Hamburg has allowed 30 goals in 13 rounds – nobody in the league conceded more. Fortunately their attack is at a good level with 29 goals scored, otherwise they would be involved in the relegation battle. These statistics are not such a big surprise – Hamburg plays a free flowing type of football with little accent put on defending, like all of Bert van Marwijk’s teams have done over the years.  Hamburg is in mediocre form with 2 wins and 2 losses in the last 2 rounds. They beat Hannover 3-1 last round. The will miss Van Der Vaart, Diekmeier, Rajkovic, Zhi Gin Lam and Demirbay.

Hamburg lineup: Adler – Westermann, Tah, Djorou, Jansen – Arslan, Badelj – Beister, Calhanoglu, Ilicevic – Lasogga

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Wolfsburg has a goal difference of 19-15 in 13 rounds, an average of 2.65 goals per game. Wolfsburg’s 4 out of the last 5 games finished with at least 3 goals. With 29-30 goal difference, Hamburg has an average of 4.54 goals that are scored in their games. An interesting thing is that Hamburg is much more prone to scoring and conceding goals on the road: 18-17 goal diff. away, which makes for an average of exactly 5 goals per game. Hamburg has 6 games with 3 or more goals from the last 7. On the other hand, the last 5 times these two teams met, only once an over 2,5 goals game occurred.

The statistics are insane and clearly indicate a high scoring game, with maybe even 4, 5 or more goals. Watching these two teams play, you can’t expect this game to finish with lest than three goals. The only things pointing otherwise are the recent H2H and Van Der Vaart’s and possibly Diego’s absences (but defensive players are also missing). I will go with an over 2.75 goals bet as I find the odds very good – so I am waiting for at least 4 goals, but even with 3 we will get some profit. The fact that both teams will want to win (Wolfsburg – favorite, Hamburg – desperate for points) will also help the fast pace of the game and opportunity for counters. There will be a lot of chances, that is for sure.

I can’t fault this bet even if the two sides miss their chances and it will end up with under 2.5 goals, because I am making the logical choice here and there are little to no premises for a surprise in terms of goals scored. I will tip a 3-2 win for Wolfsburg in this game.

Pick: over 2,75 goals
Odds: 1.83 @ Sbobet
Stake: 9
Possible profit: 7.47
Event date: 29 November

Editor Facts

• Ocean is 1 for 1 in tips on Hamburg this season