Wolfsburg – Sporting

For sure one of the best ties in the first KO round of the Europa League is the one between Wolfsburg and Sporting. The German side will play host in the first leg.

Wolfsburg’s start in 2015 was nothing short of miraculous … a 4-1 win over Bayern and overall 3 wins and 1 draw in the 4 matches played this year. And this happened despite meeting teams like Bayern or Leverkusen. The hosts won a fantastic game away at Leverkusen over the weekend, 5-4 in the last minute after leading 3-0. Bas Dost scored 4 goals (!!!) and Wolfsburg’s offense is looking unstoppable at the moment, boosted by the transfer of Schurrle and scoring 13 goals in these 4 matches in 2015. Wolfsburg can field a similar lineup to the one that beat Leverkusen 5-4. The only notable absences are Perisic and Guilavogui.

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Sporting has drawn its last two matches, each time 1-1 vs. Benfica and Belenenses. The visitors are playing good football this year and are close to their best level at the moment, losing only 1 game from the last 15 in all competitions. The most impressive feat however is that Sporting scored at least 1 goal in each of these 15 matches … actually they scored in each of the last 22 matches and they had many clashes against top sides opposition during this run. They look good value to add another one vs. a not so good defensive team like Wolfsburg, even if Slimani will miss the game. An even bigger blow is the absence of the best defensive midfielder Carvalho, who is suspended.

I like Wolfsburg to win this game, they are in fantastic form, but they could be a bit tired after the game vs. Leverkusen and Sporting is not quite easy to defeat. The best bet is on the under over / both to score market in my opinion … it is really hard to envision these teams not putting on a goal fest. It’s true that amazing goal scoring statistics don’t guarantee a high scoring affair, but looking at these two play, you can sense this is going to go over. Both coaches will field offensive lineups … Wolfsburg will play it’s usual fast, pressuring football and will find ways to create chances as usual, while Sporting can punish them on the break at any time. The visitors struggled a bit lately to score more than 1 goal per game, but very likely 1 will be enough to guarantee an over today.

Sporting’s matches against German opposition this season finished 4-2 and 4-3 in the Champions League with Schalke. This has all the statistical and common-sense arguments to be a high scoring affair as well. My tip is both to score, as it has slightly better odds than the over. Correct score prediction: Wolfsburg – Sporting 3-1.

Pick: Both to score
Odds: 1.80 @ Betsson
Stake: 10
Possible profit: 8
Event date: 19 February