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Yen-Hsun Lu and Ivo Karlovic meet in the second round at Shanghai in a clash expected to mostly go on serve.
Lu caught a good run of form recently, playing some of his best tennis of the season in the US hard court swing, reaching the semifinals at Winston Salem and the third round at Cincinnati (defeated Berdych). He had not played since losing to Garcia Lopez in the first round at the US Open but will be confident of doing well here at Shanghai, where Asian players usually come up with the goods – especially after getting a good 3 set win over Granollers in the first round. Overall so far Lu had a decent season.
Karlovic had a very good season so far, playing some of the best tennis of his career, serving at a brilliant level. However, the Croatian suffered a dip in form lately, winning just one of his last 5 matches and getting beat by Gojowczyk last week in Tokyo, but recovered in style to defeat Marin Cilic in a three set tiebreak in the first round here at Shanghai, playing great tennis – though obviously Marin was not quite at his best.
Karlovic leads the H2H 3-2 (3-0 on hard courts) but lost the previous meeting which was a couple of months ago in Halle, a 6-7 6-7 defeat with no breaks of serve (and only two break point opportunities). They met another time this year in Memphis, where Lu had to retire. The matchup analysis could not be more straightforward, both guys are big servers and poor returners, Lu being much better from the baseline but much more inconsistent as well.
It`s rather hard to say who will win this, the match analysis showcases a really balanced clash, and that is why I reckon the best bet is a tiebreak to occur in the first set. Expect both guys to look to secure serve early in the match, knowing that a break would be a disaster, and surely both are more than capable of doing it. Can`t see either Lu or Karlovic having what it takes to break early on, so my tip is a tiebreak in the first set (top notch odds by Bet365), just as it happened last time in Halle. Indeed Yen-Hsun Lu did not play a single tiebreak in the last 8 matches before the first round here in Shanghai, but meeting a big server will be a different matter. Prediction: Yen Hsun Lu – Ivo Karlovic 6-7 6-3 6-7.
Pick: First set tiebreak – Yes
Odds: 2.62 @ Bet365
Stake: 7
Possible profit: 11.34
Event date: 7 October
