Sugita – Mayer

Yuichi Sugita and Leonardo Mayer will square off in what should be an evenly matched and potentially high level clash in the second round at the US Open, with both players being in fine form. This preview comes a bit late, but there are still at least 5 hours and a half until the match will start.

Sugita is having the best season of his career in 2017, breaking Top 50 for the first time, and his recent form on hard gives him hope that he can have a remarkable US Open. Just two weeks ago Sugita managed to reach the quarterfinals at Cincinnati with wins over Sock, Souza and Khachanov before losing to eventual winner Dimitrov. Here at the US Open he had an easy draw, meeting 331st ranked Blancaneaux, and Sugita gave him a lesson of tennis, winning 6-2 6-2 6-0.

Leonardo Mayer is in great form himself, having won the last tournament he entered – the strong event at Hamburg. That was on clay, so Mayer didn`t play on the American hard courts before US Open, but he had time to adjust as he took part in the qualifying tournament here. Mayer defeated Janvier and Sakharov before losing to Marterer, but when facing Marterer he already knew he will qualify for the main draw regardless of the result (as a lucky loser). Mayer played an excellent match to defeat Gasquet in Round 1, 3-6 6-2 6-4 6-2.

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Mayer leads the H2H 1-0, having won the only direct meeting back in 2011 on grass. Both players like hard courts and played very well on the surface this season (19-8 Sugita, 7-2 Mayer).

If Mayer is on, he should beat Sugita here, as Mayer’s top level is truly remarkable and probably too much for the Japanese to handle. Mayer showed this kind of level pretty often recently, but still it remains to be seen if he can bring it against an in form competitor like Sugita, who will do everything to keep Mayer out of sync and who can do plenty of damage himself.

No matter who goes on to win this match, it should be a pretty tight encounter. Both guys are playing well and it`s hard to see any one of them go down without a fight. At the very least you would expect 4 sets, maybe a tiebreak, so betting the over looks like a good idea – especially as the 37,5 games line doesn`t seem that high and should normally be covered in 4 sets.

Look for a close game with both players hitting well and not making too many errors. Expectation is that the sets will be close and one or two of them could well go into ‘overtime’.

My tip is over 37,5 games to be played and it`s worth mentioning that odds are dropping pretty fast on this bet. Prediction: Yuichi Sugita – Leonardo Mayer 6-7 6-3 3-6 5-7.

Pick: over 37,5 games
Odds: 1.88 @ Jetbull
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 7.04
Event date: 31 August