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Zenit was shocked by Apoel in the first leg, losing 1-0 in Cyprus despite being the dominant side in the match. Now Zenit is a huge odds favorite to win at home and to qualify, but the Russians will have to be focused if they want to avoid a colossal upset against their lesser opponents.
It was obvious in the first leg that the superstars from Zenit were not really fit and pumped up for the match. Many of the top guys like Hulk, Garay or Kerzhakov had no break time in the summer, having to play in the World Cup, and surely there are some fatigue and fitness issues for them right now. Even so, Zenit should have won in Cyprus, but AEL put on a clinical defensive performance and with a fair share of luck managed to get a result that keeps them in the tie coming into the second leg. Zenit is on the back of a 4-0 away win in the opening round of the Russian league so now with some match experience they might be more dangerous than in last week’s match.
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AEL Limassol finished tied in points with APOEL last season but lost the title via goal difference. The visitors are a decent side but don`t really have a special weapon or asset and surely they can`t be compared to Zenit. AEL was lucky to win the first leg, but they have to be given credit for their efforts and determination. The cypriots are still in the pre-season break, the league has not started, so that will be a small disadvantage for them coming into this match.
Team news: Both sides are expected to field similar lineups as in the first leg, but Zenit will miss Witsel who was red carded in Cyprus.
Playing in Russia is always a struggle and honestly I can’t see AEL coping with the pressure and an upset does not look likely here. They are not even the best team in Cyprus football, which is not at its best level right now (we saw champions APOEL struggling with Helsinki). Zenit might be a moody and streaky team, but they played a great game in the league over the weekend and now with some matches under their belt I am confident they will be able to do the job and qualify at home. It`s hard to believe AEL will get lucky again like they did in the first leg. My tip is Zenit to win and cover the 2 goal asian handicap, they are a team with great attacking strength and can surely put 3 goals past AEL. The over also looks a good bet but the odds on the handicap are much better (though they are dropping). Look for Zenit to play a dominant match and qualify to the next stage in the Champions League. Prediction: Zenit Sankt Petersburg – AEL Limassol 4-1.
Pick: Zenit (-2 Asian Handicap)
Odds: 1.94 @ Sbobet
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 7.52
Event date: 6 August
