Zenit – Benfica

Zenit Sankt Petersburg and Benfica will square off in the second leg of the Champions League Last 16, with the Portugese side winning the first leg 1-0.

It was pretty obvious in the first leg that Zenit did not have matches under their belt, with the Russian League (where Zenit is just 5th) being in the Winter break. However, despite barely having 35% possession, Zenit was able to protect a 0-0 result until Benfica struck in the 91st minute. Since then, Zenit claimed a 1-0 win extra time win over Kuban in the Russian Cup and a 0-0 draw at Krasnodar over the weekend. They should be better equipped ahead of this match at home.

Benfica is in fantastic form right now. They won all of their last 4 matches to nil, including a colossal 1-0 road victory against rivals Sporting over the weekend – a win that propelled Benfica to the fist place in the standings, ahead of Sporting. The visitors actually won 15 of their last 16 matches in all competitions and they should have won 16 out of 16, but were very unlucky to lose against Porto last month. Great stats for Benfica in the last few months.

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Team news & lineups:

Malafeev, Faizulin, Garcia, Criscito and Ryazantsev are out for Zenit. Benfica will not be able to count on Almeida, Santos, Jardel, Luisao, Fejsa and Lopez. Also, Julio Cesar might end up being ruled out of the lineup as well.

Zenit Sankt Petersburg: Lodygin – Smolnikov, Garay, Lombaerts, Anyukov – Witsel, Neto – Hulk, Shatov, Danny – Dzyuba

Benfica Lisbon: Julio Cesar – Silvio, Nelsinho, Nilsson-Lindelf, Eliseu – Sanches, Samaris – Pizzi, Jonas, Gaitan, Mitroglou

On paper, both these teams have a lot of quality up front. However, they are very secure at the back as well. Zenit allowed 1 goal in 3 difficult matches in 2016, while Benfica has 4 clean sheets in a row. The stats are pretty telling.

A result like 1-0 in the first leg allows little margin for error as far as Zenit is concerned. They will definitely play as careful as possible, looking to deny Benfica opportunities and hope to find a goal over the course of the 90th minutes. Benfica would obviously love an away goal, but they have no reason to hurry to get it. Benfica will be patient as well, trying to keep a clean sheet and maybe put the nail in Zenit’s coffin late on.

Both teams have a few injury worries in defense, but they do have adequate cover and the match will be more about the styles of play than about individual players. If Benfica does not score an early goal, which they most likely won`t, this game has all the makings of a low scoring affair.

My tip is under 2,5 goals and I expect Benfica to qualify as well, even the cold Russian weather will be an advantage for Zenit. Odds on this bet are going down. Prediction: Zenit Sankt Petersburg – Benfica 0-1.

Pick: under 2,5 goals
Odds: 1.82 @ 1xBet
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 6.56
Event date: 9 March