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AEK Larnaca (Cyprus) and Spartak Moscow (Russia) will square off early Thursday evening in the Europa League qualifying third round, first leg.
AEK Larnaca already played 4 matches this season, all in Europa League and won them all: 6-1 aggregate against Folgore and 5-2 aggregate against Cliftonville. It was a good, solid start of the season for the hosts, but Spartak Moscow will be a totally different caliber of opposition and AEK starts this tie as a clear underdog. Larnaca finished second last year in Cyprus and was actually in the title race with APOEL for most of the year, until they lost the last 3 matches of the season.
Spartak hasn`t played any official matches this season, so this will be the first outing for the team which finished 5th last season in Russia. It wasn`t a good season for Spartak in 2015 / 2016, but a late run of wins saw them steal that last Europa League spot from rivals Lokomotiv. The team mam made a couple of interesting signings this summer, most notably Fernando (Sampdoria) and will hope to achieve better results in this campaign.
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There`s no question that Spartak Moscow is the better team here, but this might be a tricky game for them. AEK Larnaca is playing competitive football for some time now, they have good morale after winning the first 4 games and are actually a decent team. Spartak plays its first competitive match of the season, away from home, so these kind of circumstances always make an upset more likely.
This could be a close game, with Spartak keeping most of the ball, but they might be still rusty and have difficulties creating chances. AEK would probably be satisfied to just avoid losing this one, while Spartak shouldn`t be too disappointed with a draw either, especially if they manage to score a goal.
All being said, I expect a draw here, but I don`t think it would be a total shock if the hosts pull off a narrow win. My analysis here is based on the fact that AEK should have enough to frustrate Spartak given the circumstances of this meeting, so I definitely would not want to lose the bet if the hosts get a surprising win.
With the above facts in mind, my tip here is a Draw on the AEK Larnaca win no bet market. This means that the bet is won with a draw and we get our stakes back if the hosts win the game. Prediction: AEK Larnaca – Spartak Moscow 1-1.
Pick: Draw – AEK Larnaca win no bet
Odds: 2.40 @ Bwin
Stake: 7
Possible profit: 9.80
Event date: 28 July
