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Reigning Romanian champions Astra Giurgiu will play host to Dinamo Bucharest, placed 4th last year, in the first round of Liga 1.
Astra was not a favorite to win the title last season, but they fully deserved it, playing the most entertaining football in the country and beating the top teams in direct matches. They had a good squad and this remains the case this season as well, even though they are struggling with finances. They didn`t lose many players, just one key defender, but brought in a fantastic replacement for him (Sapunaru – though he is not ready to play). Astra’s main loss in this start of the season will be top scorer and best player Alibec, who got injured during Euro 2016 action with Romania.
Dinamo had a pretty solid season last year, even if they did not win anything, finishing 4th and losing the Cup final – but they were competitive from start to finish in all competitions. The good performances were mostly attributed to manager Mircea Rednic, who left the club, so that will be a big loss. Dinamo seems weaker in this start of the season, new manager Andone isn`t that highly rated (anymore) and his tactics on defense represent a liability. A few key players also left the club (Cerniauskas, Puljic, Bicfalvi, Kortzorg – all first team regulars). Quality replacements have not been brought in. Still, it`s hard to judge the situation obectively, as in my opinion Dinamo should have actually done better last season with the squad it had and I`m not convinced old manager Rednic performed miracles.
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Team news & lineups:
Astra will miss its best player and top scorer, Alibec, while substitute striker Niculae is also injured. Newly signed defender Sapunaru is not yet ready to play. As such, Astra will likely play an innovative 4-2-4-0 formation, with one of the offensive midfielders acting as a sort of deep lying striker. Dinamo has a full squad available.
Astra: Lung jr. – Vangjeli, Geraldo, Fabrício, Morais – Lovin, Boldrin – Boudjemaa, Ionita II, Teixeira, De Amorim
Dinamo Buc.: Branescu – Hanca, Marc, Mevlja, Filip – Busuladzic, Anton – Rotariu, Palic, Lazar – Gnohere
Even with Alibec and Niculae missing, Astra remains a very dangerous side on offense, especially since they lost their best center back (Gaman). They had plenty of time to get used to playing without Alibec and Niculae in training. I believe they will create chances rather easily against a Dinamo side that lost its keeper (Cerniauskas) and best center back (Puljic), while also hiring a manager who is famous for his all out attacking style of football. Ioan Andone already stated that he will play this match to win and that he wants an entertaining display from his players.
Last season the two teams met no less than 5 times and most matches were high scoring: 1-0, 1-2, 1-1, 4-1, 4-2. And Dinamo is expected to be much more offensive minded than last season, when they played a rather defensive brand of football.
It remains to be seen if Andone will play the same type of matches as he did in his previous time at Dinamo a few years ago, when scores like 5-4 or 3-2 were happening almost every week. But it`s a certainty that he struggles to organize a defense and that he likes to play an attacking style of football. Dinamo`s players in defense will not help him much, as there is some serious lack of quality on the right section (right back and right center back).
I think this match will see over 2,5 goals, even if Astra misses its best two strikers – so that will be my tip. A bet on both teams to score might be a bit safer, but the difference in odds is too high in my opinion (2.00 for both to score, almost 2.40 for the over).
Hopefully the hosts will be able to take their chances without a real striker on the pitch. Prediction: Astra Giurgiu – Dinamo Bucharest 2-2.
Pick: over 2,5 goals
Odds: 2.38 @ 1xBet
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 11.04
Event date: 23 July
