Tomic – Karlovic

The final at ATP Bogota (hard court) will see Bernard Tomic take on the big serving Croatian Ivo Karlovic. So, what to bet on this one?

Listen, Tomic played his best tennis of the year this week, and I was expecting him to kick it up a notch and make light work of veteran Estrella in the semifinals, but instead Tomic produced a lackluster performance and barely won the match in 3 tiebreaks against a player that was not playing anything special. Of course, Tomic is still at a good level, better than his usual inconcistent performances, but he`s still not able to make full use of his talent and he showed a lot of weaknesses against Estrella, especially on the return. The Australian also struggled with fitness at times, shaking his leg a couple of times and he looked very tired at the end of the match.

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Karlovic has been brilliant in the last two weeks, reaching the Newport final (where he played great against a Hewitt in top form) and reaching the final again this week at Bogota. Big Ivo did well to fend off a dangerous Stepanek in the semis in 3 sets and he will look to defend his title today, he won this tournament last year. Karlovic’s serve was nearly unbreakable in the last two weeks and of course the big Croatian will rely on this weapon again, but he actually played very well all around as well for his standards, being able to hit winners with his forehand and successfully coming at the net. I don`t think fatigue will be an issue, an analysis of his game shows it to be rather straightforward and does not put too much pressure on the body, aside from the back.

The H2H is 2-0 for Tomic, two tight wins last year on hard, one of them due to retirement. The 2-0 H2H might raise ewyebrows, but a matchup analysis does not reveal any advantage for Tomic, especially the way he has been returning in the match against Estrella.

I can see Karlovic winning this final after the loss against Hewitt last week in Newport. Karlovic looked really good, he actually had a great year overall and these last two weeks he seemed almost unbeatable, it took a Hewitt that played his best tennis to break his winning run. Tomic played good tennis here at Bogota himself, but is still not convincing enough and his semifinal showing was actually rather poor. I expect him to be fit today, but if his tiredness from yesterday`s match (which finished much later than Karlovic’s) is any indication, he could struggle and hand big Ivo an easy win, that would be a nice bonus. All in all I expect Karlovic to win this, he should hold his serve easily and take advantage in the moments that Tomic breaks down, he has these moments in every match. We should see at least a tiebreak, and of course Ivo has much more experience in such situations, he should be able to win any tiebreaks that occur. My tip is Karlovic to win. The bookies opened with Tomic as a slight favorite but the odds for the bet on Karlovic are dropping. Prediction: Bernard Tomic – Ivo Karlovic 6-7 6-7.

Pick: Karlovic
Odds: 1.93 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 9
Possible profit: 8.37
Event date: 20 July