Brive – Connacht

CA Brive will host Connacht in the third round of the Rugby Challenge Cup group stages. Brive is third in Pool 5 with five points, while Connacht is first with nine points.

Brive is coming after a crucial win in the French Top 14, beating relegation rivals Oyonnax by three points at home and climbing up to the 12th place in the standings. It was a second consecutive good result for Brive, after they got a draw at Bordeaux two rounds ago, but Bordeaux was shorthanded in that game, their best players being out on International duty.

Connacht isn`t having a very good season domestically and right now it seems like they will not make the playoffs, although they still have time to recover. Nevertheless, Connacht has played much better in Europe, winning the first two games convincingly in the Challenge Cup. This is not a new situation for Connacht, a team that also performed very well in Europe last year, despite struggling even more in the domestic competition.

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Team news & lineups:

Brive will rest most of their best players here, with about 10 main guys set to be left outside the starting XV, or outside the match squad entirely. Connacht will not do the same – instead, they will field a competitive lineup, close to the best one available.

Brive: 15 Gaetan Germain, 14 Nadir Megdoud, 13 Sevanaia Galala, 12 Benjamin Petre, 11 Guillaume Namy, 10 Thomas Laranjeira, 9 Florian Cazenave, 8 Petrus Hauman, 7 Dominiko Waqaniborutu, 6 Poutasi Luafutu, 5 Jan Uys, 4 Johan Snyman, 3 Demba Bamba, 2 Mike Tadjer, 1 Julien Brugnaut

Connacht: 15 Tiernan O’Halloran, 14 Cian Kelleher, 13 Pita Ahki, 12 Bundee Aki, 11 Matt Healy, 10 Jack Carty, 9 Kieran Marmion, 8 John Muldoon, 7 Eoghan Masterson, 6 Cillian Gallagher, 5 Quinn Roux, 4 Ultan Dillane, 3 Finlay Bealham, 2 Shane Delahunt, 1 Denis Buckley

Although Brive has 1 win and 1 loss in this group, having every chance to push for qualification, they are clearly focusing on the Top 14 right now. That`s where the money is, and the fight against relegation is (and will be) grueling.

Connacht is a better side than Brive overall, and considering the hosts will field almost a “B” lineup, they shouldn`t be a match for their Irish visitors here. Connacht loves this competition, they are treating it with respect and have always played their best rugby in Europe.

Winning in France is rarely easy, but Connacht already did it once convincingly a few weeks ago, beating Oyonnax by 28 points in this same group. Considering the circumstances of this clash, a second win in France seems likely for the visitors.

I expect the visitors to show better cohesion and ball handling here, while Brive will struggle to find chemistry with all their absences and against a superior, more motivated opponent.

My tip is Connacht to win. Odds on the visitors started dropping once Brive released the starting lineup (some bookies even dropped their odds to ~1.70, but most of them still have around 1.80 or even 1.90), and chances are the price will continue to go down – so I wouldn`t wait too much before placing the bet. Prediction: CA Brive – Connacht 18 – 29.

Pick: Connacht
Odds: 1.92 @ Unibet
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 7.36
Event date: 9 December