Clermont – Leinster

Clermont will host Leinster at Matmut Stadium de Gerland in the Rugby European Champions Cup, with the winner set to face Saracens in the Grand final.

A fair case can be made about Clermont being the best team in Europe overall this season (though Saracens is probably a better side). The hosts have been impressive in the Champions Cup, posting the best record in the group stages and easily beating Toulon by 20 points in the quarterfinals. Domestically, they are third in the strong French Top 14 (despite often looking like the most dominating side) and are coming after a 59 – 18 win at Grenoble, despite resting almost their entire lineup last weekend.

Leinster is in terrific form, having not lost a game since December in any competitions. They are leading the Guiness Pro 12 by 3 points and are already qualified for the playoffs, breaking all kinds of scoring records in the process. Leinster also performed fantastically in the Champions Cup quarters, beating the English Premiership leaders, Wasps, by 15 points.

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Team news & lineups:

Clermont will miss Fofana and Nakaitaci, while Leinster will miss Murphy, Heaslip and O’Brien – with O’Brien being a fresh absentee. Both teams rested their best players in domestic action last weekend.

Clermont: 15 Scott Spedding, 14 David Strettle, 13 Aurélien Rougerie, 12 Remi Lamerat, 11 Nick Abendanon, 10 Camille Lopez, 9 Morgan Parra, 8 Fritz Lee, 7 Peceli Yato, 6 Damien Chouly, 5 Sébastien Vahaamahina, 4 Arthur Iturria, 3 Davit Zirakashvili, 2 Benjamin Kayser, 1 Raphael Chaume

Leinster: 15 Joey Carbery , 14 Fergus McFadden, 13 Garry Ringrose, 12 Robbie Henshaw, 11 Isa Nacewa (c), 10 Johnny Sexton, 9 Luke McGrath, 8 Jack Conan 7 Dan Leavy, 6 Rhys Ruddock, 5 Hayden Triggs, 4 Devin Toner, 3 Tadhg Furlong, 2 Richardt Strauss, 1 Jack McGrath

Clermont has been a bit shaky recently, losing 3 out of the last 5 matches in the Top 14 and dropping to the 3rd place, after they seemed sure to finish 1st or 2nd at the end of the regular season. The rather poor form might have been a combination of overconfidence that they can`t lose a Top 2 spot, along with the challenges of also playing in the Champions Cup. Still, there`s no doubt that Leinster is earning much better results than Clermont lately and seems to be the team in form coming into this match.

However, it`s a fact that French club rugby is stronger than Irish club rugby and home court advantage will also be a huge factor. Winning on the road in Europe is extremely difficult, especially when you have to play in front of a packed 26000 seat stadium, like Matmut Stadium de Gerland will be today (even though it`s not Clermont’s regular home ground). It`s not a surprise that Leinster has not won a game in France since 2015.

This Clermont team has been very good all season, they have an amazing roster and always proved an ability to show up for the big games, like they did in the quarterfinals against Toulon.

The hosts seem to be a better team when it comes to wing play, and their forward pack is definitely as good as Leinster’s – probably better, considering the absences of Heaslip, Murphy and O’Brien for the visitors. The visitors have an advantage in the kicking game against most teams, especially with the boot of Sexton at No.10 – but that won`t be the case today, as he will have to go against the excellent Camille Lopez – who has an even better goal kicking record than Sexton this year. Clermont also has Parra who can kick at goal as well as Lopez.

Clermont are just the better team overall and having the all important home court advantage, they should be able to hold off Leinster despite their great form. My tip is Clermont to win. Prediction: Clermont – Leinster 24 – 19.

Pick: Clermont
Odds: 1.62 @ Betsafe
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 4.96
Event date: 23 April