King – Opelka

Darian King will take on the 6 foot 11″ Reilly Opelka in the final qualifying round for the ATP Masters event in Miami. The two players never met before on tour.

Darian King (121 ATP) is having an excellent start to the season, playing the best tennis of his career at the moment. The Barbadian broke the ice at ATP level in 2017 and claimed some very impressive wins in the last few weeks, beating the likes of Tomic, Basilashvili or Kukushkin. He reached the second round at Indian Wells last week where he took a set from Monfils. Here in the first qualifying round at Miami he defeated Ivan Dodig 6-4 5-7 6-0.

At 211 cm, Reilly Opelka (169 ATP) is one of the tallest players in ATP history (arguably THE tallest). The American got a solid win in the first qualifying round over Marius Copil, although that was a strange match with Copil (another big server), blowing consecutive points of serve in the most important moments of the match. Beating the 107th ranked Copil was arguably the best result of the year for Opelka, as he did not have an impressive 2017 so far.

King’s results in 2017 are so much better than Opelka’s and the Barbadian is simply playing at a different level right now. He was great last week at Indian Wells, playing some great tennis against Kukushkin, Basilashvili and Monfils – while Opelka got a wildcard and was knocked out in the first round by Gojowczyk (4-6 6-3 1-6).

I did not watch Opelka’s first round match against Copil here in the Miami qualies. However, knowing Copil and looking at the fact that he lost his big serve twice in a row in the first set when leading 3-1, and 3 consecutive times in the second set tiebreak (against a wretched returner like Opelka), it is pretty clear that at least part of that match was blown by Copil with unforced errors – an usual occurrence for him. As such, Opelka’s win was not particularly impressive.

Opelka doesn`t have much going for him coming into this match, aside for the fact that he is an exciting prospect for the future and that he plays at home. King might not have the same publicity, but he is the better player at the moment, he is having a great year and he`s definitely much more consistent. King should be the favorite in this match.

My tip is King to cover the 2 game handicap. I reckon he has a very good chance to win the match, but the handicap bet provides a good margin for error, given the fact that Opelka is a big server with not much of a return game. I would be surprised if the odds on King don`t drop. Prediction: Darian King – Reilly Opelka 6-3 6-7 7-6.

Pick: King +2 game hc
Odds: 1.96 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 7.68
Event date: 21 March