Dnipro – Sevilla

Dnipro Dnipropetrovsk vs FC Sevilla, 2015 Europa League final held in Warsaw.

Let’s start with the expected line-ups and injuries / suspensions.

Dnipro lineup: Boyko – Fedetskiy, Douglas, Cheberyachko, Leo Matos – Kankava, Rotan, Fedorchuk, Matheus, Konoplyanka – Kalinic.
Out: Mazuch, Zozulya

Sevilla lineup: Rico – Coke, Carricco, Kolodziejczak, Tremoulinas – Mbia, Krychowiak – Aleix Vidal, Banega, Vitolo – Bacca.
Out: Pareja

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Dnipro is a hard working team, totally different from the other 2 Ukrainian big teams. They built their success on good organization, they do not have so much talent. People always say they have talent because they give a lot of players to the Ukrainian NT, but that’s because Dynamo Kiev and Shakhtar buy a lot of foreign players, and Ukrainian talent does not have any room. The truth is that Dnipro is built with many reserves from other teams, fringe players that never got a chance of regular playing time at a bigger club. So when they had the chance to play in an European competition, like Europa League, they gave 200%. Dnipro relies on defense. This is a team that received 1 goal from Ajax, 0 goals from Brugge, 1 goal from Napoli. They are really an interesting team. The problem is they never really had to attack that much. The only match they had to attack from start to finish, was the home game vs Ajax. In all the other games they defended for the majority of the playing time.

Sevilla is also extremely organized, playing team football. Their success, in my opinion, comes from the fact that they have many mediocre players but the competition between them (they have a big squad) makes them give 200% and so they can play very good in a lot of competitions. Unai Emery is also an important factor in their success. They have a good economic situation, and made very inspired transfers.

The conclusion is that I see clearly an underish game. The bookies also expect this, putting out odds of about 1.75 on under 2.5 goals. But I see the best value in Sevilla to keep a clean sheet / Dnipro not to score, odds 2.05 and that is my bet. Good Luck!

Pick: Dnipro to score – No
Odds: 2.05 @ William Hill
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 8.40
Event date: 27 May