England – Australia

Absolutely massive clash in Pool A of the Rugby World Cup, surely the most anticipated match in the competition so far. Some even say that it`s the biggest group match in World Cup history. Not only do two power horses in England and Australia meet, but England also has to face the prospect of elimination – a loss will send England out of the World Cup they host, which would be a disaster for them. Australia could also miss out on the quarterfinals if they lose today, depending on what they do in the last round against Wales. Obviously, there are also implications regarding the first place.

While hosting the tournament obviously gave them an edge, England was hugely overrared before the start of the competition. The Three Lions were viewed as second favorites to lift the trophy by the bookies, despite them being a worse team than South Africa, Australia or Ireland, nevermind New Zealand. England missed the Six Nations trophy for the 5th consecutive time this year, they started the World Cup with a big but unconvincing 24 point win over Fiji (Fiji questioned them big time until the last 10 minutes) and finally lost to an injury ravaged Wales 25-28 in an absolute thriller at Twickenham. It remains to be seen if England can react positively after a loss than can hamper the morale of an entire generation.

Australia did the job with ease so far. The Wallabies weren`t too convincing in the 28-13 win over Fiji, but even so they should have won by more. They followed with an improved performance over Uruguay, posting the biggest score of the RWC so far, 65-3, despite resting all key players. Australia struggled a bit in the previous years but recently the Wallabies look really solid and they can surely mount a challenge for the trophy here in England. They improved their scrum big time, which was hindering their brilliand wide game.

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Team news & lineups:

Vunipola will be a massive loss for England, but key man Joseph returns. Owen Farrel continues to deputize at No.10 despite complains from the public and the fact that it hasn`t worked well against Wales. Australia will send in the heavy cavalry, making 14 changes to the team that dismantled Uruguay.

England: 15 Mike Brown, 14 Anthony Watson, 13 Jonathan Joseph, 12 Brad Barritt, 11 Jonny May, 10 Owen Farrell, 9 Ben Youngs, 8 Ben Morgan, 7 Chris Robshaw (c), 6 Tom Wood, 5 Geoff Parling, 4 Joe Launchbury, 3 Dan Cole, 2 Tom Youngs, 1 Joe Marler

Australia: 15 Israel Folau, 14 Adam Ashley-Cooper, 13 Tevita Kuridrani, 12 Matt Giteau, 11 Rob Horne, 10 Bernard Foley, 9 Will Genia, 8 David Pocock, 7 Michael Hooper, 6 Scott Fardy, 5 Rob Simmons, 4 Kane Douglas, 3 Sekope Kepu, 2 Stephen Moore (c), 1 Scott Sio.

England won 4 of the last 5 H2H meetings since 2010 onwards and have a dominant record over Australia at Twickenham, but none of those matches came remotely close to the stakes this one has.

The two teams are pretty evenly matches, but you have to feel that Australia is better overall, despite the H2H record – as it is usually the case in the Northen Hemisphere vs. Southern Hemisphere rivalry. The Wallabies also looked better in this Rugby World Cup and have much less pressure than England.

Australia is simply the better team, they pose a huge threat on the wings and will punish England in that department. The bottom line is that if Australia stays competitive in the scrum, which they should be able to do, they will take this. England can`t match them on the wide game. Home court advantage can only count to a certain extent, and considering the implications in this match, it could well work against England. I`m sure The Three Lions will fight like hell in this one, but you just can`t get bigger pressure than the one pushing on their shoulders tonight. In a sport like Rugby, this could well translate into handling errors and knock ons in key moments – especially against an aggressive team like Australia that goes for it and always takes calculated risks.

This is set to be a close match, but Australia surely has the edge – both in quality and in having the perfect tools to succeed under the circumstances. Looking at the handicap and draw no bet markets I`m not satisfied with the odds and I feel that the best value is to take an extra risk and bet on Australia to win straight up – so my tip will be a win for the Wallabies. If this world Cup was held in Australia, the Wallabies would probably have odds around 1.50 here. Today, the odds were clearly set having in mind the huge mass of english punters and are dropping quickly. Australia should win. Prediction: England – Australia 20-23.

Pick: Australia
Odds: 2.25 @ William Hill
Stake: 10
Possible profit: 12.50
Event date: 3 October