England – USA

England and USA will square off on Thursday in Pool C of the 2019 Rugby World Cup, which also features France, Argentina and Tonga.

England entered the World Cup in great form after winning the Six Nations earlier this year, and after putting some excellent performances in the pre World Cup tests as well. However, the Red Rose was disappointing on Sunday against Tonga. England did not play well in its opening RWC 2019 game despite eventually claiming a comfortable 35-3 win. But they were expected to put more points past an inferior, out of form opponent. England made a ton of handling errors and didn`t really play good team rugby, relying more on individual talent.

There haven`t been many Nations (if any) to make the kind of progress Team USA made over the last few seasons. The Americans might just have their best ever generation coming into this Rugby World Cup, a generation which started to claim some extraordinary results over the past couple of years. Since 2018, USA started to blow out teams like Romania or Canada, and managed to claim wins over Samoa (twice) and, cherry on top, Scotland! What a result that was for USA rugby! This year has been a good one for USA and they seem ready to make some noise in the World Cup.

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Team news & lineups:

England will shuffle the starting lineup here with just a 4 day turnaround since their previous outing, making 10 changes after facing Tonga on Sunday. USA will play its first match of this World Cup and will throw all their best weapons at their famous opponents.

England: 15 Elliot Daly, 14 Ruaridh McConnochie, 13 Jonathan Joseph, 12 Piers Francis, 11 Joe Cokanasiga, 10 George Ford (c), 9 Willi Heinz, 8 Billy Vunipola, 7 Lewis Ludlam, 6 Tom Curry, 5 George Kruis, 4 Joe Launchbury, 3 Dan Cole, 2 Luke Cowan-Dickie, 1 Joe Marler

USA: 15 Will Hooley, 14 Blaine Scully (c), 13 Marcel Brache, 12 Paul Lasike, 11 Martin Iosefo, 10 AJ MacGinty, 9 Shaun Davies, 8 Cam Dolan, 7 John Quill, 6 Tony Lamborn, 5 Nick Civetta, 4 Ben Landry, 3 Titi Lamositele, 2 Joe Taufete’e, 1 David Ainuu

The 33,5 point handicap set by the bookies here seems disrespectful to the level of progress USA has made. This is a good team, very well put together, well organized, and with a lot of talent as well. The Americans are not the kind of minnows you roll over by just showing up anymore, as Scotland learned last year. It surely seems like USA is underestimated coming into this game.

Of course, England is still head and shoulders above the Americans, and they are fully capable of handing them a good beating on their day (Ireland beat USA 57-14 in a test last year).

But as we saw in the World Cup so far (and as it was expected, although personally I did not take advantage of it), the big boys are not quite stepping on the gas in the first week against lesser opposition.

It won`t be easy for England to put a ton of points past a spirited, rested, confident and in form USA team. They only put 35 past Tonga in a match in which they were fresh and used their best lineup, against an opponent below USA’s caliber, at least right now. The USA will be a tougher test.

Look for the Red Rose to dominate, but USA will respond with a strong pack, they will make the game physical, and (very important) they have exceptional kickers which will be able to push the game back into England territory when USA is under pressure. Those extra meters the likes of MacGinty can kick will be valuable. Time will pass, and it will become increasingly difficult for England to cover a big spread.

Weather is expected to be good for rugby. There shouldn`t be any rain (although it will be humid), and the wind won`t blow too hard.

England will probably shake off some of the rust showed in the Tonga game, but on the other hand they will miss some of their best players, and will also have some tired legs in the team with such a short turnaround after the Tonga game. Team USA won`t let them run away with it. My tip will be USA to cover the 33,5 point handicap. Prediction: England – USA 40 – 17.

Pick: USA +33,5
Odds: 1.91 @ William Hill
Stake: 10
Possible profit: 9.10
Event date: 26 September