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Fabio Fognini will face Pablo Carreno Busta in the third round of the Australian Open on Friday night, Day 6 of the tournament.
Fognini hasn`t been particularly impressive this year or this week. The Italian played in Auckland prior to the AO, where he edged Gojowczyk in a deciding set tiebreak before being demolished by Kohlschreiber. Here in Melbourne, Fognini struggled in the first round against Munar Clar before the Spaniard retired (7-6 7-6 3-1) before playing his best match of the year against Leo Mayer, winning in straight sets. Still it was a close match against Mayer (7-6 6-3 7-6).
Carreno Busta, who also played in Auckland and lost to Struff in a very close match, isn`t playing at his absolute best level either. However, he is apparently finding his rhythm this week. After losing his first two sets of the tournament against Vanni, the Spaniard won his next 6 in pretty impressive fashion. He came back from 0-2 down against Vanni and followed that up with a clear cut victory over Ivashka. Carreno will attempt to continue his progress against an opponent which has been easy work for him so far.
Bet on Fognini vs. Carreno-Busta and get your 100% (120 Eur) bonus at LSbet now!Carreno Busta leads the H2H 5-0 (2-0 on hard courts), losing only three sets to Fognini in these 5 meetings. The H2H is too one sided for it to be a coincidence, and it`s pretty clear that Carreno Busta`s style of play from the baseline is pretty uncomfortable for Fognini.
Neither player has been at his best recently, but Carreno at least is on a solid mini run, with 6 consecutive sets won. Coming back from 0-2 in the first round clearly gave him some renewed belief and confidence, and that confidence will be doubled by his history against Fognini.
If Carreno keeps his game relatively clean, he will make life extremely difficult for the inconsistent Fognini, as he has done in all past meetings. Fabio is always error prone, and even more so against Carreno Busta, whose smart aggressive game puts pressure on Fabio and also forces him to hit another shot – thus the one sided Head 2 Head.
Despite being favored by the bookies here, Fognini is not playing better than Carreno and has mostly been kept alive by his serve this week. When you add the very important H2H factor, you have to consider the Spaniard the real favorite in this match, and it`s no surprise that odds on him are dropping pretty much everywhere.
Carreno Busta looks like great value to win at odds above 2.00, so that will be my tip here. For a safer approach, Carreno +1,5 sets should work well at decent odds around 1.60. Prediction: Fabio Fognini – Pablo Carreno-Busta 7-6 4-6 6-7 4-6.
Pick: Carreno-Busta
Odds: 2.20 @ William Hill
Stake: 7
Possible profit: 8.40
Event date: 19 January
