Flamurtari – Petrolul

Flamurtari faces a seemingly impossible mission, as they meet a much better team and have to recover a 2 goal deficit from the first leg, when Petrolul won 2-0. However, the first leg of this Europa League tie was closer than the score suggests.

Flamurtari did well to frustrate Petrolul for almost 80 minutes in Romania, even having a big chance to take the lead at 0-0 in the second half. They crumbled at the end but can take positives from that match, especially considering that they were never expected to stand a chance in this tie. Flamurtari is a mid-level team in a weak Albanian league, they barely got an 8th place finish last year but a run to the cup final allowed them to play European football this year.

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The visitors are one of the best teams in Romania and have a very good squad, arguably the best in the country. However, they have a poor manager and I`m rather sure that this will be their shortcoming this season. Razvan Lucescu is a guy who had one single performance in his career (back in 2005), but did absolutely nothing before or since then. He is known to be a very defensive minded coach and especially on the road he always plays for draws. Even in the first leg with Flamurtari, Petrolul seemed content with 0-0 at some point despite the big quality difference, before an individual execution made the difference – so there`s no doubt in my mind that the visitors will approach this game with a 0-0 draw as the main objective. Razvan Lucescu stated that he wants “a good defensive organization, fighting spirit and focus”.

Team news: Both teams are relatively healthy and will field similar lineups to the first leg.

Flamurtari proved they can frustrate Petrolul defensivley and I do not expect them to play any different than in the first leg. Expect a devensive setup from the hosts – they know that if they concede a goal all hope is lost, so they will try to keep a clean sheet and maybe create some chances in the second half. Petrolul has no interest in winning this. They might do it, of course, but they will aim to preserve the 2-0 aggregate score and would be more than happy if the game finishes with a draw or even a narrow loss. I can`t see anything else than a low-scoring game here. My tip is under 2,5 goals and I am very happy with the odds on this bet. Prediction: Flamurtari – Petrolul Ploiesti 0-0.

Pick: under 2,5
Odds: 1.91 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 7.28
Event date: 24 July