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Flavia Pennetta will take on Monica Niculescu in the women’s US Open second round, with the Italian hoping to exploit Niculescu’s questionable fitness.
Pennetta won just two matches on the American hard courts prior to US Open, but she did show decent tennis overall – beating Dabrowski and Cibulkova in straight sets, also taking a set from Serena Williams in Montreal. Here at the US Open the Italian needed 3 sets to down Jarmila Gajodosova in the first round, but the 6-1 3-6 6-1 win was rather straightforward and Pennetta’s win was pretty obvious for most of the match.
Niculescu is having a very good season so far, she`s now in the TOP 50, but she didn`t play particularly great in the US hard court swing – decent, but nothing more. She reached the quarters in Washington (def. Arruabarrena-Vecino, Davis, lost to Stosur) and was knocked out in the first qualifying round in Cincinnati by Sasnovich. It was more of a test match for her, because she got injured earlier in Washington. The big news about Niculescu however is that she needed an absolute thriller to defeat qualifier Panova in the opening round here at Flushing Meadows. It was the second longest match in the women’s US Open history and Niculescu did not look particularly good in it. The match lasted almost three hours and a half and it remains to be seen if the Romanian can recover physically after a grueling battle.
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Pennetta leads the Head 2 Head 2-0 (1-0 on hard) and she actually demolished Niculescu in both meetings, losing just 3 games overall! It has to be said though that both matches were in 2010 and much has changed since than, so there isn`t much relevance in the H2H – maybe just a slight mental deficit for the Romanian.
Niculescu isn’t looking great right now and her first round thriller surely took a lot of energy, especially if we thing that Monica was still nursing an injury to her ab muscles prior to the tournament. Pennetta should win this in any circumstances, but looking at Niculescu’s situation, it could well end up a blowout if the Romanian will be, as expected, very tired. I reckon a big handicap on Pennetta represents a value bet, I wouldn`t touch 2nd round women’s tennis otherwise, as we know how unpredictable things can be.
I can see Niculescu holding strong for a set, maybe even winning the first set if she will not feel fatigue early (though I highly doubt it), but after that going down big time. The savvy and experienced Pennetta will know all too well how to play a tired opponent, especially after getting a feel of the situation in the early games.
My tip on this second round encounter is Flavia Pennetta to cover a 5 game handicap, with 8 units, it seems like a good balance between value and risk. Odds are going down on Pennetta to win. Prediction: Flavia Pennetta – Monica Niculescu 7-5 6-0.
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Pick: Pennetta -5 game handicap
Odds: 2.25 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 10
Event date: 3 September
