Golovkin – Alvarez

Gennady Golovkin and Salul ‘Canelo’ Alvarez will square off in a mega fight for the unified IBF, IBO, WBA and WBC middleweight titles, currently held by Golovkin. The blockbuster boxing match, one of the most anticipated ever, will be held at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, and Golovkin is currently rated as a 1.60 – 1.65 favorite by the bookmakers.

Gennady Golovkin (37-0-0, 33 KO) is coming after the toughest fight of his career, being (somewhat surprisingly) tested by Daniel Jacobs back in March, eventually winning a unanimous decision. It was the first time in Triple G’s career when he had to go 12 rounds, as he was riding a series of 23 consecutive KO’s, TKO,s or RTD’s. All things considered, it was good for Golovkin to be tested like that ahead of this fight with Canelo. He has destroyed every boxer he faced with his all time great KO punch, but now proved he can go the distance as well if needed.

Canelo Alvarez (49-1-1, 34 KO) has a single loss on his resume, and that has been 4 years ago against Floyd Mayweather. Since then, Canelo has gotten better and raised himself to the top of the boxing pyramid with wins against guys like Amir Khan or Miguel Cotto. Last time out, the Mexican defeated Chavez Jr in a lopsided unanimous decision. Many are viewing him as the top P4P fighter in the world, although that may be a stretch, likely influenced by the fact that he has a huge following.

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This will be a rather classic matchup between a power hitter (Golovkin) and a fast counterpuncher (Canelo), although both boxers have a vast array of skills and can`t be considered one dimensional.

A key fact is that Golovkin is the bigger boxer here. He is 4cm taller than Alvarez (179 cm vs 175cm) and a natural middleweight – actually he is big for a middleweight – while Alvarez had to go up in weight for this fight. Both fighters have about the same reach at 178 cm. Canelo is 8 years younger than the 35 years old Golovkin.

Golovkin was less impressive than usual in his last two fights against Brook and Jacobs, and that prompted many experts to say that he is starting to show his age. Two years ago Canelo would have had no chance in this match (6 years ago he was spanked by GGG in a sparring session), but he is on the up, while some say Golovkin is losing steam.

I find that to be inaccurate. Against Kell Brook, Golovkin knew there was no danger as Brook had no power. He toyed with him, and even if he got hit plenty of times, he eventually destroyed Brook in 5 rounds, literally breaking his face. As for the Jacobs fight in March, well, Jacobs is a great boxer – but more importantly he is 183cm tall with a 185cm reach. That is totally different than what the much smaller Canelo will bring to the table.

Those last two fights will be good preparation for GGG coming into this match, as the level of opposition he faced before was poor, and that was the only knock against him during his career. Canelo faced much tougher opposition, but now GGG should be ready, especially after navigating through that 12 round match against Jacobs. He showed he can do 12 rounds and that is very important against a defender like Canelo whose gameplan will be to wear GGG down.

Golovkin is one of the biggest punchers the sport has ever seen and he will definitely look to shake Canelo as early and as often as possible, while Alvarez will try to counter with body shots and look for weak sports in Triple G’s defense. Triple G showed in his last two fights that he can be caught by top boxers, and that his defense can be penetrated – but his resistance is excellent, so that allows him to use his power to eventually win easily.

One of the keys to this fight could be Golovkin’s jab, which is so good that it is effectively a power punch. It keeps opponents wary and afraid to get in and test his defense, and Canelo should be no different. I don`t see the Mexican being able to get through that jab often enough to use his speed and counter punching effectively.

In a fight between a power puncher and a fundamentally sound defender I will usually place my bets on the defender, even if he`s smaller. The defender often outboxes the power puncher, using speed, stamina and fundamentals to eventually win the fight. Those who say Canelo will win are basing their pick on these exact arguments.

However, Triple G is truly one of a kind, and Alvarez, while very good, might be just a tad overrated. He`s also not a defensive figther per say, he can be very entertaining, but he will concede the center of the ring in this fight. He did face tougher opposition than GGG, but in all honesty wins over Khan or Cotto don`t get you over the top as one of the all time greats. I don`t think he should be rated on par with Andre Ward for example, a boxer with a similar style, who was able to beat the mighty Kovalev twice in a matchup similar to this one (being gifted the first one by the judges, and winning the second one more clearly, when I picked him to win).

All in all Golovkin is just too big and powerful, but he also has good technique, good chin and good resistance as proved in his last fight – plus his great jab, which could be the X factor that denies Canelo his gameplan. I do not view Alvarez as an all time great boxer who could win despite facing such disadvantages. My tip here is Golovkin to win, I can see him scoring a KO in the middle rounds, but he can win a decision as well if Canelo’s chin holds up.

Pick: Golovkin
Odds: 1.67 @ Ohmbet
Stake: 9
Possible profit: 6.03
Event date: 17 September