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Warriors – Bucks

Warriors Bucks handicapping

The Golden State Warriors will be without Draymond Green when they face the Milwaukee Bucks on Thursday night in the NBA.

The Warriors (10-1, 6-0 home) have been on fire so far this year. After last year they didn`t play at full steam in the regular season, cruising without forcing the issue, this season they seem to be hungrier and more motivated, with Steph Curry playing particularly spectacular basketball The Warriors played with high intensity in all their 11 games so far, and aside for a tight loss in Denver early in the season, they dominated every opposition, having only one other close game (in Utah, also early in the season).

The Bucks (8-2, 2-2 away) started the season with 7 consecutive wins, before losing 2 of their last 3 games (at Boston and at Portland). Giannis Antetokounmpo has raised his level to legit MVP level this year, and the Bucks surrounded him with better pieces, as well as with a much better coach in Mike Budenholzer. Milwaukee is looking like a real contender in the East, though losing 2 out of the last 3 does raise a question if they can keep up this level and finish as a Top 2 or 3 seed.

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Team news: The Warriors will miss Draymond Green, Shaun Livingston and DeMarcus Cousins (who is yet to play this year). The Bucks will only be without a few fringe unimportant players like Meeks or Wood, probably Duval and Wilson as well.

Missing Draymond Green will hurt the Warriors, as he is a real glue player for this team and their best defender as well. Without him, the match against a good Bucks side becomes a real contest, as opposed to the Warriors having 1.15 odds or something like that. Now they are priced as high as 1.45.

Nevertheless, even without Draymond, the Warriors have enough talent to beat any team in the league, and at home they would be favorites against anybody.

The way the Warriors are playing this season, looking at their intensity (they will surely bring it again without Draymond and vs a good opponent), and also considering the fact that the Bucks have been less impressive lately, you would expect Golden State to claim victory here. It`s also worth noting that while the Bucks have an 8-2 record, they are just 2-2 on the road and are very lucky not to be 1-3 (stole a one point victory at Charlotte early in the season).

The Warriors won every home game this season by at least 8 points, and by an average margin of 15.5 points. As such, the 5 point spread seems tasty here.

My tip is the Warriors to cover the 5 point handicap. Backing Steph Curry to score over 28.5 points might also be a good idea given that Durant will generally be guarded by Giannis, and will also be very busy on defense against the Greek Freak and in the absence of Draymond Green. Also Curry had a rare off night last time out, so the way he`s been playing this season it`s unlikely he`ll have a second one in a row. Still, the handicap seems a bit safer in my eyes, as Curry`s line is pretty high. Prediction: Golden State Warriors – Milwaukee Bucks 122 – 110.

Pick: Warriors -5
Odds: 1.85 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 6.80
Event date: 9 November

About Rostick

Former bookie & water polo player. Rugby Union expert. - EDITOR INFO & STATS
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2 Responses

  1. u bet 6 or 8 unit?

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