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IFK Goteborg hosts Mjallby in the Round 16 of the Swedish Allsvenskan.
Goteborg is now on the 6th place and absolutely has to win this if they have any hope left for the title. After a good start, Goteborg had problems winning games lately and fell 11 points behind leaders Malmo (but have one game in hand). It was a period with many draws for Goteborg, 4 in the last 5 games in the league and they also struggled in Europe against Faeroe minnows Fola Esch. But things got better recently, they won 6-2 in the league vs Helsinborgs and 3-0 in Europe against Gyor (away) a couple of days ago. Goteborg is in my opinion a top 3 team in Sweden, maybe the second best after Malmo, and once they passed that bad run of form I expect them to start recovering what they lost and winning games. Getting players back from injury lately also contributed to their resurgency.
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Mjallby is one of the main favorites for relegation. They escaped last year but this year it will be harder for them, they are on the 14th place with just 12 points in 14 games. THey have 1 point in the last 2 games and away from home they lost 5 of the 7 matches they players. Mjallby scores less than 1 goal per game so it will be hard for them to get a good look at the opposing goal today, with Goteborg very strong in the defensive department.
The way the two teams look right now, and considering Goteborg is the better team, it is hard for me to see the hosts losing points at home, specially since this is a very important game for them. Goteborg should be able to keep things tight at the back and over the 90 minutes surely they will be able to get the required goals. I think a handicap is very possible, so my tip will be Goteborg to win with a 1,25 asian handicap. Many people are going on this bet and for good reason, but this means the odds are dropping. Expect Goteborg to continue their recent good form. Correct score prediction: Goteborg – Mjallby 2-0.
Pick: Goteborg (-1,25 Asian Handicap)
Odds: 1.79 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 6.32
Event date: 20 July
Sweden is a difficult championship to play big handicaps.
Goteborg are in a good period, they are playing good lately but you forgot to mention their poor 2-2 draw from last week, when they were lead 2-0 and got back in the last minutes.
They are far from solid, and for me to win by 2 goals is too much.
Good Luck!
You were right!
Good Tip!