Hungary – Portugal

Portugal needs at least a draw in order to qualify from Group F and they will be looking to claim three points against an already qualified Hungary, so they can finish at the top of the group.

The Hungarians have been arguably the biggest surprise of the Euros so far. They have a very modest squad, which struggled to qualify from one of the easiest ever qualifying group, where Hungary finished 3rd behind Northern Ireland and Romania. However, this modest squad was able to hand Austria a lesson in a 2-0 victory and snatch a 1-1 draw from Iceland, though Iceland could have (should have?) won that game despite Hungary`s possession, as they led for most of the game and had a colossal chance in injury time.

Portugal was disappointing so far, claiming just two points but Ronaldo’s team only needs a draw in this match if they are to qualify. However, at a closer look, you can`t really say Portugal underperformed. They were better against both Iceland and Austria, had loads of chances, missed a penalty and should have won both of those games. Additionally, Portugal is not such a great team as people make them out to be. They have Ronaldo and some big name players, but they are vulnerable in some zones and some of those big names aren`t as effective as they used to be. Portugal had the most shots at goal in Euro 2016, but only scored once.

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Team news & lineups:

Fiola is doubtful for Hungary, while Portugal has Gomes and Guerreiro questionable. Neither of the three players is expected to feature in the starting lineup.

Hungary: Kiraly – Lang, Juhasz, Guzmics, Kadar – Nagy, Gera – Nemeth, Kleinheisler, Dzsudzsak – Szalai

Portugal: Rui Patricio – Vieirinha, Pepe, Carvalho, Eliseu – Sanches, Carvalho, Moutinho – Quaresma, Ronaldo, Nani

I don`t rate Portugal as highly as others do, but they are still the best team in this group and this is a match they should really win. Portugal’s individual quality should work well against a Hungarian side that has no such talent and I would not be surprised if the likes of Ronaldo or Quaresma will create havoc by taking opponents out of play with individual actions. Ronaldo anytime goalscorer could be a solid bet to take.

Portugal was unlucky not to win at least a match so far and I believe they will against a Hungary side that is already qualified for the next stage. Portugal only needs a draw, that is true, but they definitely don`t want to finish on the 3rd place and will go for the 3 points.

Credit to the Hungarians for their performance so far, but they might be the weakest team in the tournament player for player and were a little fortunate to claim the 4 points so far. They are already qualified, but could finish 3rd if they lose, as opposed to finishing first with a draw (unless Iceland beats Austria by 2 or 3 goals).

My tip is Portugal to win with a 1 goal asian handicap. I am not ultra confident they will win by 2+ goals, but I think they will do it and I am confident that they will at least win – which would still give us our money back. I`m also thinking about the fact that Hungary will leave open spaces at the back if they fall 1 goal behind, as the difference between a draw and a loss could be huge for them. So that might help Portugal cover the handicap. Prediction: Hungary – Portugal 0-2.

Pick: Portugal (-1 Asian Handicap)
Odds: 1.73 @ Sbobet
Stake: 9
Possible profit: 6.57
Event date: 22 June