Ireland – France

Ireland and France will square off in a blockbuster Six Nations third round match at Aviva Stadium, with both teams needing the win to stay relevant in the title fight. Each side has won a game and lost a game so far.

Ireland was the main favorite to win the Six Nations in the eyes of many prior to the tournament, given their favorable schedule and the amazing way in which they finished 2016 – a year in which they beat all Southern Hemisphere giants, including New Zealand. However, Ireland paid the price for a slow start in the first round against Scotland and despite doing well to recover, they eventually lost that by 5, putting a dent in their title chances. The Irish side bounced back in style with an utter destruction of Italy in the following game and will be confident of securing another W against France.

There has been a lot of talk about France’s improvement under Guy Noves, but until two weeks ago the team didn`t achieve anything more than a few close games against teams last Australia, New Zealand and England (in the Six Nations first round). France badly needed a win to validate the praises and finally got it two weeks ago, beating Scotland at home 22-16. It was a difficult game and France didn`t show quite as much as their fans hoped for, but it was a good win nonetheless.

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Team news & lineups:

Ireland will get a massive boost from the return of key playmaker and penalty taker Johnny Sexton. Captain Rory Best also returns in a healthy and improved Irish lineup. Vakatawa and Chouly are out for France, with Vakatawa being a huge loss. Guy Noves will make three changes to the side that beat Scotland.

Ireland: 15 Rob Kearney, 14 Keith Earls, 13 Garry Ringrose, 12 Robbie Henshaw, 11 Simon Zebo, 10 Johnny Sexton, 9 Conor Murray, 8 Jamie Heaslip (c), 7 Sean O’Brien, 6 CJ Stander, 5 Devin Toner, 4 Donnacha Ryan, 3 Tadhg Furlong, 2 Rory Best (c), 1 Jack McGrath

France: 15 Scott Spedding, 14 Yoann Huget, 13 Rémi Lamerat, 12 Gaël Fickou, 11 Noa Nakaitaci, 10 Camille Lopez, 9 Baptiste Serin, 8 Louis Picamoles, 7 Kévin Gourdon, 6 Bernard le Roux, 5 Yoann Maestri, 4 Sébastien Vahaamahina, 3 Rabah Slimani, 2 Guilhem Guirado (c), 1 Cyril Baille

France is a solid team in 2017, but not as good as advertised. I just don`t see France’s colossal improvement about which everybody is talking about. They are not winning games and they were fortunate to beat Scotland two weeks ago, as the Scots played most of the match without their inspirational captain and top kicker Greig Laidlaw. Even so it could have gone either way, but France eventually scraped it at home. ‘At home’ is the keyword, as the French are so much better on their own turf then away from home – although they did only lose by 3 in England three weeks ago.

That`s not to say France isn`t getting better, they surely are and seem to be on the right track, but their progress is not as massive as, for example, Scotland’s. They are just starting to improve and it will take time for them to truly challenge for a Six nations crown.

Discounting a win over Samoa, France averaged well under 20 points per game in last year’s tests and also in this year’s Six Nations. You would expect them to score below their average in such a difficult game against Ireland. If that happens, it`s hard to see France staying within touching distance by scoring just 12-18 points against what might be the second best attacking team in World Rugby.

Playing in Ireland will be a difficult task and I can see France getting exposed in this game by a superior, well oiled Ireland team. The Irish are pumping on all cylinders, they do not have any real weaknesses and have an absolute fantastic bench that should dominate the French one in the last 20 minutes of the game.

Getting back Sexton and Best should make Ireland even better, while the loss of Vakatawa will hurt France, so the Irish have a consistent advantage in this department.

If they get the chance, the Irish will be desperate to claim an offensive bonus point. Bonus points are awarded in the Six Nations for the first time ever and they could well be the difference in the standings. Ireland would really need that bonus point after losing to Scotland and with a game in Wales coming up, so don`t expect them to sleep on a 5-6 point advantage.

There`s a good chance for rain and wind around game time and it`s difficult to say which team will be more affected if that happens, but you have to feel that Sexton’s ability from the tee gives Ireland an edge in windy weather. The pitch should be in good condition.

Expect a good game with Ireland dominating and eventually pulling away in the last quarter of the match. My tip is Ireland to cover the 7,5 point handicap. Prediction: Ireland – France 28 – 16.

Pick: Ireland -7,5
Odds: 1.88 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 10
Possible profit: 8.80
Event date: 25 February