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Joao Sousa (39 ATP) and local favorite Paul-Henri Mathieu (91 ATP) will square off in the ATP Metz quarterfinals, with the match being played on hard indoor.
Sousa has not played too well recently and this week he won 2 consecutive tennis matches for the first time since early July, when he reached the Bastad final. The Portuguese player has lost 8 of his last 10 matches, with his only wins coming against Buchanan and Dancevic, and he`s not exactly an indoor hard specialist. He did manage to win two matches this week but Dodig was totally out of form and in the second round Sousa barely edged Sijsling in a 3rd set tiebreak, another out of form player who recently buried the Netherlands in the Davis Cup.
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Paul-Henri Mathieu might be ranked 91st in the world, but on his day he can still take on and defeat almost any player out there. He did not play well recently and had a similar last two months with Sousa, but the Frenchman truly raised his level here in Metz and got two convincing wins in straight sets against solid players: Becker and Rosol. Paul-Henri is playing good tennis right now, his deep groundstrokes are finding the court and his serving was particularly good, with Mathieu not losing a single break so far in Metz.
The H2H is 0-0, not much to say about the matchup analysis here. The only thing worth mentioning is that Mathieu loves this surface, but Sousa can play good tennis on indoor hard as well, proved it last year with some good results in this period.
Metz has always been a favorite hunting ground for Frenchmen and they always did well here at home, including Mathieu who reached the final in 2008. I can see Paul-Henri taking advantage of the surface and the crowd today but his main weapons are his superior talent, excellent serving and better form. Despite a deep analysis I am struggling to find too many reasons why Sousa would be able to edge this. My tip is Paul Henri Mathieu to win. The odds should never be over 1.65 for a Mathieu win in my opinion and I`m surprised more people are betting on Sousa, from what I can see age and ranking are the main arguments but I strongly disagree and I am sure many bettors are forgetting how good Mathieu really is when he`s healthy and in form, even at 32. We`ll see how it goes, but I am picking Paul-Henri with big stakes. Prediction: Joao Sousa – Paul-Henri Mathieu 4-6 7-6 2-6.
Pick: Mathieu
Odds: 1.74 @ Sbobet
Stake: 9
Possible profit: 6.66
Event date: 19 September
Jesus Christ, 4 match points (3 consecutive) + serving for the match. And Ocean loses his pick in the dying minutes. So frustrating, both picks should have won, but again we lose big.