Nishikori – Raonic

Kei Nishikori and Milos Raonic will meet for a second consecutive time in a Grand Slam 4th round after Milos defeated the Japanese in 4 sets in Wimbledon.

Nishikori played his best tennis in the first half of 2014, proving that he is capable to mix it up with the best. However, he had problems with injuries and after almost defeating Nadal in the Madrid final he wasn`t quite himself anymore, despite still getting decent results when he played. His preparation for US Open was Ok, not spectacular, and here at Flushing Meadows Kei easily got past Odesnik, Andujar (retired) and Mayer. Nevertheless, his opponents were not particularly strong – Mayer was the only one in form but he did not play a great match, Nishikori did not have to do too much so his blowout win did not impress me. It was a rather poor game.

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Raonic is in the form of his life, no doubt about that, and if it wouln`t have been for Federer he would have Grand Slam and Master Series finals / titles in the last few months. He was stopped by the swiss in the Wimbledon and Cincinnati semifinals, but overall great tennis for Milos. He really looks like a guy who can challenge for semifinals and finals in the biggest tournaments right now, something that few players can say. His serve is probably the most effective on tour right now, putting big pressure on the opponent, and it`s no wonder Milos reached the 4th round here at the US Open – on the other hand losing set to Gojowczyk and beating Estrella in 3 tiebreaks could be regarded as a reason for worry.

The H2H is 2-1 for Nishikori (1-0 on hard, 1-1 in 2014) but the last time the two met Raonic got a rather dominant 4 set win. What intrigues me about the H2H is that the Wimbledon encounter had extremely similar circumstances – Nishikori not losing sets, apparently playing great, Raonic struggling a little bit in previous rounds. The only thing that changes right now is the surface and the fact that Milos has more experience in Grand Slams.

I expect Raonic to win this. Looking at the stats you might say that Nishikori cruised while Raonic struggled a little bit, but the Japanese did not face in-form opponents while Raonic is already a guy who can afford to save his energy in the early rounds. He will be much better today, no doubt about that, and the fact that he was a little bit tested will also help him. I expect a very similar match to the one in Wimbledon, with Raonic’s blistering serve eventually wearing out Nishikori and determining him to make errors on his own serve. Milos is also the fitter player right now considering Nishikori played much less matches in the last few months and had those injury issues. My tip is Raonic to win, I`d say in 4 sets – odds on him are slightly increasing but I have zero concerns about that, it also happened in Wimbledon from what I can recall. Prediction: Kei Nishikori – Milos Raonic 5-7 6-4 6-7 4-6.

Pick:Raonic
Odds: 1.79 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 9
Possible profit: 7.11
Event date: 1 September