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Kei Nishikori and Stan Wawrinka will face off on Saturday in the second semifinal at the ATP 500 event in Rotterdam, which takes place in indoor hard conditions.
Nishikori started 2019 in blistering form, winning his first 8 matches of the year before succumbing to a thigh injury in his Australian Open quarterfinal against Djokovic (1-6 1-4). Nevertheless, Nishikori took only three weeks to recover and returned this week playing again at a high level. Kei had some problems against the in form Herbert in the first round, but he got through that match and went on to easily take care of Gulbis and Fucsovics in the next two rounds.
Wawrinka didn`t have the greatest year before Rotterdam, but Stan the Man will be happy he took a late wildcard for this tournament, as he is playing some vintage tennis. Wawrinka seems to have found his form, putting on three exceptional performances against very dangerous opponents like Paire (always tricky), Raonic (all world player) and Shapovalov (who came into the match in absolute top form). Waw is yet to lose a set this week despite this criminal draw.
Bet on Nishikori vs Wawrinka and claim your 100% (120 Eur) freebet at LSbet now!Wawrinka leads the H2H 5-4 (4-4 on hard) and won the previous meeting last year in Cincinnati (a pretty straightforward 6-4 6-4 win too). A matchup analysis won`t show any player to have an edge over the other. Both players are also highly competent on indoor hard, so the surface shouldn`t be a deciding factor either.
Wawrinka has really played some top tennis this week, looking sharp with his groundstrokes, unstoppable at times, closing in to his best level of play. He hardly put a foot wrong and showed killer instinct against some very, very difficult opponents. Shapovalov was coming into his QF meeting with Wawrinka in fantastic form, having played magnificent tennis in his previous round against Berdych, but he was still no match for the Swiss.
Nishikori has played (very) well himself but his draw can`t be compared to Wawrinka’s. Kei had a rather easy road to the semis and did have his moments of weakness, particularly against the tired Herbert in the first round. But even in the quarters against Fucsovics is was an up and down clash with many breaks and long games, despite the 6-3 6-2 scoreline, and despite the fact that Fucsovics was not that dangerous of an opponent at this stage in a strong tournament.
Nishikori had in fact a favorable schedule all year. While he has 11 wins out of 12 matches, he was priced 1.35 or lower in 9 of those wins (mostly below 1.20), and was a big favorite in all 11 of them. Obviously he is in good shape, but maybe not as good as it might seem looking at just the results, and this has been also valid this week.
Odds on Nishikori are so low presumably because of his pre – Rotterdam form, but this week Wawrinka has played better tennis, and that`s all that matters really.
Obviously it won`t be an easy match for Wawrinka, as nobody can deny Nishikori is playing well himself, but Wawrinka`s level has been a bit higher here in Rotterdam, and you can`t go against him when he`s in this kind of form. At the very least Stan should be able to make this close, so my tip will be Wawrinka to cover the +2,5 game handicap. I wouldn`t be surprised to see odds dropping on this bet, or even the line moving down. Prediction: Kei Nishikori – Stan Wawrinka 7-6 4-6 4-6.
Pick: Wawrinka +2,5 games
Odds: 1.95 @ 18Bet
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 7.60
Event date: 16 February
