Krasnodar – Fenerbahce

The first match to be played in the Europa League round of Last 32 first leg will see Krasnodar host Fenerbahce in the cold Russian weather.

Krasnodar had problems qualifying from the group stage, finishing with only 7 points despite winning the first two games. Nevertheless, it was a good performance to get out from a difficult group with Schalke, Nice and Salzburg. The hosts are currently 5th in the Russian Premier League and have been excellent at home this season, losing only twice in 16 matches in all competitions. Krasnodar is currently in the mid season break so that will be a problem for them.

Fenerbahce is coming after a 1-1 draw at Bursaspor, having beaten rivals and league leaders Besiktas 1-0 on the road, in the Cup, in their previous match. The visitors are playing pretty decent football at the moment but their season overall has been mediocre, as they are only 4th in the Turkish SuperLiga. In the Europa League however Fenerbahce has been great, winning a group that also featured Manchester United or Feyenoord.

This should be a close game, the two teams are more or less similar in terms of quality. Fener might be a bit better and Krasnodar is disadvantaged by the fact that they are in the mid season break, but the Russians have been fantastic at home this season and the cold Russian weather will be a plus for them.

I expect a low scoring clash here that might be decided by just 1 goal either way. Both Krasnodar and Fenerbahce are allowing less than 1 goal per game in average in their domestic leagues. 8 out of the 12 matches they played combined in the EL group stages ended with under 2,5 goals, which is another relevant statistic.

A tight game between two good defensive teams, in a KO tie in cold weather, should produce a grueling midfield battle with not many goal scoring chances to show for.

My tip here is under 2,5 goals to be scored and the odds are currently dropping big time on this bet. Prediction: Krasnodar – Fenerbahce 0-0.

Pick: under 2,5 goals
Odds: 1.66 @ 1xBet
Stake: 7
Possible profit: 4.62
Event date: 16 February