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Champions League qualifications 3rd round, 1st leg. Ludogorets hosts Partizan Belgrade at Ludogorets Arena in Razgrad. This is a rematch of last years’ tie in same competition when Ludogorets won both games 1-0 and 2-1.
League and Cup winners Ludogorets are dominating Bulgarian football at the moment thanks to the problems of the other teams, but especially because of the money that were invested into their own team. The boss of Ludogorets has big ambitions with this club and the team already made an impact in Europe last season: eliminated Lazio to reach the Europa League Round 16 where they lost to Valencia. The roster this season is even better than last year: Ludogorets brought some good players but also kept top marksman from last season (Bezjak) who was being linked to teams like Getafe or even Manchester United. Surprisingly the hosts started the league very poorly (after playing great in friendlies) and are on a run of 3 matches without a win but their main objective is Champions League football and their focus was in this competition. Ludogorets easily got past Dudelange in the previous match.
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Partizan only finished 2nd last year in Serbia, a bad result for them, and is playing Champions League football only because Red Star was banned by UEFA. The visitors are a decent side but they are far from what they were a couple of years ago and people in Serbia don’t seem to trust them to have Champions League quality. Partizan did not start the league but played 2 matches against HB Torshavn in the previous round of UCL qualies and won both 3-0 and 3-1.
I don’t want to dismiss Partizan and say they don’t deserve to be here … but reality is they did not earn their place on the pitch and I bet they know it. I think this tie sees Lugodorets as the odds on favorites and they should make a first step today at home with a favorable result (a win). Ludogorets has a better roster in my opinion and they proved themselves in Europe in the last year … while Partizan did not get any notable european results in a long time … also Ludogorets beat Partizan 2 times last year and this year the difference between the teams is bigger in favor of the Bulgarians. Playing at home should be enough of an advantage for Ludogorets to get a win and the fact that they started the league is also an advantage. My tip will be Ludogorets to win. I think Partizan will not be a sure victim but in the end the hosts will have too much for them … again. And at these odds at Pinnacle the bet seems great; can get us a good result for an 8 units investment. Correct score prediction: Ludogorets Razgrad – Partizan Belgrade 2-1.
Pick: Ludogorets
Odds: 1.95 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 7.6
Event date: 30 July
