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There are some bets that I like in the 3rd round of Roland Garros WTA draw, and I will choose to write this one, the most notable of 3rd round matches. Maria Sharapova, ranked #30, will face Karo Pliskova, ranked #6, for a spot in the R16. Neither of them has clay as the favorite surface.
Sharapova still has some good results on clay, but mainly in this particular tournament. She won it in 2014 and played the R16 in 2015. After that she got caught cheating, by doping, and was suspended for 18 months. Since her return she has a record of 14 wins and 6 losses on the red dirt. This year she got to the QF of Madrid and to the SF of Rome.
Funny fact is that 7 out of her last 8 matches played on red dirt finished with over 21.5 games, and 5 out of those 7 played finished in 3 sets. Both her matches in Roland Garros ended up in over 21.5 games.
Pliskova has a 20 wins and 7 losses record for the last two years played on dirt, while this year she managed to win the Stuttgart tournament (special clay … played indoors, with a very fast surface) and got to the Madrid SF. Last 4 matches played by Pliskova ended in over 21.5 games.
Both player possess a huge serve, top 5 in this department in the WTA. Sharapova stands at 1.88m tall, while Pliskova at 1.86m.
Pliskova hit in 2018 a stunning number of 198 aces (1st in the rankings) and won 74.7% service games. Sharapova served 93 aces (15th in this ranking) and held serve 68.8% of the service games.
Pliskova broke serve 35.9% in this year, while Sharapova 39.5%. You can see that the stats are pretty similar putting together.
Both with the great serve, both with the similar stats, both with long matches in recent matches, I think it has to be a long match with over 21.5 games. I assume a tie break will be played in this match and breaks of serve won’t be an often thing to happen.
I will back the over 21.5 bet at odds 1.85 by William Hill.
Pick: over 21.5 games
Odds: 1.85 @ William Hill
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 6.80
Event date: 2 June
