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Marin Cilic and Gilles Simon meet in what is expected to be a rather tight US Open 4th round clash. Let`s get going with the analysis and see if the predictions will come true, or if one of these players will get an easy win.
Cilic played some great tennis this year, winning 2 tournaments, reaching 1 final and defeating top players like Berdych, Murray, Dimitrov, Isner or Robredo, also being close to get wins over Federer or Djokovic on the biggest stage: Toronto Masters and Wimbledon (2-1 in sets over Nole before losing 3-2). Marin had a tough 2013 having to endure a suspension but came back with great hunger this year and he`s really looking close to that level when you can challenge for Grand Slam quarters and semifinals, beating the top guys on the road. Cilic was very good in the pre – US Open tournaments and here at Flushing Meadows was in excellent shape, losing a single set to Anderson, but the fact that he beat the strong South African 3-1 without too many problems actually says a lot about his level of tennis.
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Gilles Simon is one of my favorite players on tour and I always respected his game, but even I find it hard to believe he reached the US Open 4th round considering that this is not his best surface (though he can play) and especially taking into account his results this year. Simon was terrible in 2014, he actually has a 16-19 win-loss record which is horrific for a player of his caliber. He did improve prior to the US Open when he took a set from Djokovic, which was a good result. He also defeated Tomic and Thiem but I watched both games and I can say that his opponents played very poor. Here at Flushing Meadows Simon defeated Albot (3 sets), Delbonis (4 sets) and David Ferrer (4 sets). Credit for Gilles for improving his level of tennis, but realistically speaking he only reached the 4th round because Ferrer had an off day.
Simon leads the H2H 4-0 (2-0 on hard) so that is very good news for him, he knows how to play Cilic even on these faster surfaces. Gilles also won the only meeting at 2014, a 5 set win at Australian Open, but back then Cilic was not yet ready after his suspension and was far from his best level.
Listen, Simon is playing his best tennis of the season right now but I doubt it will be enough against Cilic. Gilles has improved but is not at his best and his win over Ferrer was misleading. Cilic was so consistent all season and played top class tennis so far at the Open, I can see him getting over the H2H and getting a convincing win over Gillou. Simon will probably start strong but eventually he`ll be overpowered – I actlually think even his best level of play would not be enough to defeat Cilic today or even push him to 5 sets. The analysis is clear here so my tip is Cilic to cover the 1,5 set handicap at some very good odds by Sbobet. If not for the one sided H2H I might have bet 10 units on this pick. A 4 set result for Marin seems like the most likely scenario, but 3-0 is not out of the question. Prediction: Marin Cilic – Gilles Simon 6-7 6-3 6-4 6-4.
Pick: Cilic (-1,5 set handicap)
Odds: 2.05 @ Sbobet
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 8.40
Event date: 2 September
