New Zealand – Australia

New Zealand will take on rivals and reigning champions Australia in the second round of the 2016 Rugby World Championship, after the All Blacks utterly demolished the same opposition last week in Sydney, 42-8.

The changing of the guard has went absolutely brilliant for New Zealand, who lost no steam after a few top guys retired – instead, All Blacks look as strong as ever and their potential is scary right now. The current New Zealant team could well go down to be the best in rugby history and they proved their class last week against the Wallabies, with the 42-8 scoreline not even doing justice to the difference in quality showed on the pitch.

Australia was looking pretty good last year, winning the Rugby Championship (albeit a shortened edition) and reaching the RWC final. Even though they lost 17-34 to New Zealand, there were some very good signs for the Australians, but those signs slowly started to fade away and it all culminated with the humiliation suffered last week. Not only did Australia lose that game heavily, but they were outplayed in every possible department, they lost players due to injury and it`s hard to see how they could recover to keep it close in New Zealand.

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Team news & lineups:

New Zealand will make 4 changes compared to last week’s game. Superstar Julian Savea will start again, even though he has been benched at club level due to poor performances. More interesting news concern Australia, as the Wallabies lost Giteau, Horne and Toomua in last week’s game. Coach Cheika made an incredibly risky move ahead of this clash, moving Foley to No.12 and giving Cooper the not at No.10.

New Zealand: 15 Ben Smith, 14 Israel Dagg, 13 Malakai Fekitoa, 12 Anton Lienert-Brown, 11 Julian Savea, 10 Beauden Barrett, 9 Aaron Smith, 8 Kieran Read (c), 7 Sam Cane, 6 Jerome Kaino, 5 Samuel Whitelock, 4 Brodie Retallick, 3 Owen Franks, 2 Dane Coles, 1 Joe Moody

Australia: 15 Israel Folau, 14 Adam Ashley-Cooper, 13 Samu Kerevi, 12 Bernard Foley, 11 Dane Haylett-Petty, 10 Quade Cooper, 9 Will Genia, 8 David Pocock, 7 Michael Hooper, 6 Scott Fardy, 5 Adam Coleman, 4 Kane Douglas, 3 Sekope Kepu, 2 Stephen Moore (c), 1 Scott Sio

Australia is definitely not looking good ahead of this clash. A horrible performance last week, along with injuries, are making New Zealand a 19,5 point spread favorite here, something you won`t see often in a meeting between these two power houses. But given the circumstances and Australia’s struggles, 20 points actually seems low. Hell, the All Blacks beat a much better Australia side by 17 in the RWC final last year, on neutral ground.

New Zealand dominated Australia in all facets of the game last week and Australia’s lineup today offers no indication that things could be different – actually New Zealand is even more likely to dominate and you would be hard pressed to find a zone in which Australia can at least hold its own, let alone be superior.

Australia wasn`t able to create anything last week at home, scoring their only try of the 8-42 loss in garbage time. With the injuries they have this time around, I doubt they will be able to do better, especially in New Zealand, where they lost the previous 16 matches. Missing players like Matt Giteau or gambling with Bernard Foley at No.12 will most likely represent a disaster for Australia in this one.

The Wallabies have not won in New Zealand since 2001, losing 18 consecutive times. They certainly won`t win today, the question that remains being the final score. I think this will be another drubbing, as Australia is actually much worse than last week and Cheika’s selection of Cooper at No.10 (colossal liability) could turn out to be a disaster. With injuries, low morale and having far less quality, the Australians would do well to not lose by more than 25 in this one. They have lost all momentum and seem like the team that was struggling to avoid the wooden spoon in this competition a few years ago.

As far as I`m concerned the analysis clearly indicates a 20+ win for the All Blacks here. Australia is not the team to stop New Zealand, they proved that last week and they are in a very precarious situation here with injuries and team selection. My tip is New Zealand to cover the 19,5 point handicap. Prediction: New Zealand – Australia 38 – 11.

Pick: New Zealand -19,5
Odds: 1.96 @ Ohmbet
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 7.68
Event date: 27 August