New Zealand – Australia

The amazing New Zealand will host rivals Australia at Eden Park on Saturday morning (European time) in a match counting for the Bledisloe Cup. The Bledisloe Cup is played each year over three matches between the two countries – two in the Rugby Championship and the final one a couple of weeks later.

New Zealand already won the Bledisloe Cup this year after defeating Australia twice in the Rugby Championship but this match, like every rugby test, still holds great significance. What’s more, New Zealand is playing for the record of consecutive wins by a Rugby nation, being currently tied for the record at 17 wins.

There`s not much that can be said about New Zealand. The All Blacks are simply unstoppable at the moment, arguably the best rugby team ever to play the game, going for the record of 18 consecutive wins. They absolutely obliterated everybody in the recent Rugby Championship, winning all games by 19+ points, averaging 43.6 points per game, with an average margin of victory of 29.7 points. Their brand of running rugby is an absolute joy to watch and helped them to ruin Australia in the two Rugby Championship matches played in the last two months: 42-8 away and 29-9 at home.

Australia was looking horrific at the start of the recent Rugby Championship, getting blown out by New Zealand, but they seemed to get better as the tournament progressed. Australia actually finished second in the Rugby Championship, but that position was misleading. The Wallabies dominated just one of the 6 matches, against South Africa at home and they still have a lot of weaknesses. They did improve a bit, but they could have well lost 1 or 2 more matches in the Rugby Championship. On the bright side, morale is pretty decent for the Wallabies coming into this match.

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Team news & lineups:

New Zealand will make a single change to the lineup that demolished South Africa in the last round of the Rugby Championship, two weeks ago. It`s a positive change, as Julian Savea is coming in and he should bring something extra to the side. Aaron Smith continues to be sidelined due to having sex with his girlfriend in a public toilet.

Australia will make two changes to the side that beat Argentina two weeks ago. Will Genia will miss out, which is a huge blow. The big news is that coach Cheika decided to start Hodge at No.12, moving Foley in his usual position at No.10 and relegating Cooper on the bench. Also, Pocock returns, but he is not completely fit and he will only play in the second half.

New Zealand: 15 Ben Smith, 14 Israel Dagg, 13 Anton Lienert-Brown, 12 Ryan Crotty, 11 Julian Savea, 10 Beauden Barrett, 9 TJ Perenara, 8 Kieran Read (c), 7 Matt Todd, 6 Jerome Kaino, 5 Samuel Whitelock, 4 Brodie Retallick, 3 Owen Franks, 2 Dane Coles, 1 Joe Moody

Australia: 15 Israel Folau, 14 Dane Haylett-Petty, 13 Samu Kerevi, 12 Reece Hodge, 11 Henry Speight, 10 Bernard Foley, 9 Nick Phipps, 8 Lopeti Timani, 7 Michael Hooper, 6 Dean Mumm, 5 Adam Coleman, 4 Rory Arnold, 3 Sekope Kepu, 2 Stephen Moore (c), 1 Scott Sio

New Zealand won 12 of the last 15 H2H meetings against Australia, with 2 draws and with Australia winning just once. New Zealand also destroyed Australia in the recent Rugby Championship 42-8 away, with the reverse leg in New Zealand being closer, 29-9. Interestingly, Australia ended New Zealand’s quest for a record of consecutive wins 3 times before and they will definitely look to do it again.

New Zealand has not lost a match at home since 2009 and they have not lost at Eden Park since 1994. Australia has not won in New Zealand in the last 15 years (18 matches) and has not won at Eden Park since 1986.

(tip was written before Australia announced its lineup) I thought long and hard if I should tip this game before knowing the Australian lineup, specifically if Hodge will go at No.12 and Foley will move to No.10, leaving Cooper out – or if Pocock (not 100% fit) will start. But it`s just not that big of a deal, each possible scenario has advantages and disadvantages which cancel eachother out. What’s more, Pocock will likely come on from the bench, Hodge will probably start at No.12, so the team selection is actually rather predictable. Will Genia’s absence at No.9 is the most important news for the Wallabies hands down and will hurt Australia a lot. They were horrible without him in the second half against Argentina in their last match.

UPDATE: As predicted, Pocock is on the bench, Hodge starts at No.12 and Foley at No.10.

The bookies set a really high line for this one at 22.5 points and I can`t argue with the ones making a case for Australia to cover the spread. However, I can definitely see New Zealand winning this by 25+ points.

The Wallabies have a lot of weaknesses and their 2nd place finish in the Rugby Championship was just papering over the cracks – and they know it. Australia was second best to both South Africa and Argentina for most of the 4 matches between them – nevermind New Zealand. They had their moments, but were often dominated tactically (by South Africa) or in terms of possession / territory (by Argentina). They probably did deserve their wins and their 2nd place finish, but they showed vulnerability over and over again.

It`s hard to see how Australia could cope with New Zealand’s strength. The Wallabies can only be competitive at the breakdown, at penalty taking (though Foley and Barret are both inconsistent, so who knows) and maybe in the scrum if they have a top day. Even on Australia’s best day, It`s just not enough to deal with the All Blacks.

Expect New Zealand to destroy the young lock pairing of Australia (big liablity for Australia on the lock positions), run them around and find gaps on virtually every carry. Australia will have huge problems running with the ball from their own half and if they are forced to a kicking game, they will be doomed – especially as their line outs have been terrible recently and New Zealand will definitely punish that.

Australia’s offensive style and wing-based play will fall right into the hands of the All Blacks – the H2H is no fluke, Australia simply does not have the style to trouble New Zealand. Australia’s coach actually said that they will play attacking rugby and take it to the All Blacks, so God help Australia if they do that, because it will leave them even more exposed for New Zealand’s blistering counters. I would not be surprised if Australia gets 1 or 2 yellow cards in this one, which would facilitate New Zealand covering the point spread.

New Zealand has been absolutely ruthless lately and they are hungrier than ever to break the consecutive wins record and end their Southern Hemisphere season on a high – team selection proves that. The All Blacks are just unstoppable and I feel that Australia simply has too much weaknesses to cope with them. The Wallabies might have only lost by 20 in the previous meeting a few weeks ago, but that was by far New Zealand’s worst match in the Rugby Championship and the All Blacks still missed a boatload of chances to win by 30+. And they won by 34 points in Australia.

There`s just no logical way for Australia to challenge New Zealand here, they don`t have the quality or the matchup and they play one of the best rugby teams ever to lace them up. It`s all about the handicap line, but the way New Zealand has been scoring 20+ points in space of 10 minutes lately (including against Australia), it`s very dangerous and nonsensical to trust Australia to cover the point spread in this Bledisloe Cup match.

The handicap line is high, but don’t be surprised if New Zealand blow Australia away here. New Zealand are winning by 30+ points even the games that seem close for 50 minutes or so, they should have no problem covering the 22,5 point spread here. My tip is New Zealand to cover the 22,5 point spread. Prediction: New Zealand – Australia: 46 – 16.

Pick: New Zealand -22,5
Odds: 1.95 @ 1xBet
Stake: 10
Possible profit: 9.50
Event date: 22 October