New Zealand – Australia

New Zealand and Australia will square off in the third Bledisloe Cup test of the year on neutral ground in Yokohama. The All Blacks already won the Cup after their two wins over the Wallabies in the Rugby Championship, so this final test is a dead rubber. However, we know that there is never really a dead rubber in rugby, especially between these two rivals.

The All Blacks have just won their third consecutive Rugby Championship, again without any problems. They did lose their first match in the competition since 2015, as South Africa beat them in New Zealand, and the All Blacks also had problems in South Africa, winning in the last minutes. Still, overall New Zealand still coasted, as they didn`t have any kind of problems in the other 4 matches against Australia and Argentina.

Australia had a dreadful Rugby Championship. They lost 4 of their first 5 matches and were on track to finish dead last in the competition when they were trailing 7-31 in Argentina in the last match. A total collapse by the Pumas in the second half helped Australia pull off a shocking comeback in that game and avoid the wooden spoon, but it was still one of their worst ever showing in the competition. The Wallabies will now hope to build on that second half comeback three weeks ago and put on a better showing against New Zealand.

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Team news & lineups:

The All Blacks lost Sam Cane due to injury, but otherwise they have pretty much everybody else available – including Brodie Retallick, who will come from the bench. The Wallabies have a couple of huge absences in the form of Coleman and Hodge.

New Zealand: 15 Damian McKenzie, 14 Ben Smith, 13 Ryan Crotty, 12 Sonny Bill Williams, 11 Rieko Ioane, 10 Beauden Barrett, 9 TJ Perenara, 8 Kieran Read (c), 7 Ardie Savea, 6 Liam Squire, 5 Scott Barrett, 4 Sam Whitelock, 3 Owen Franks, 2 Codie Taylor, 1 Joe Moody

Australia: 15 Dane Haylett-Petty, 14 Sefa Naivalu, 13 Israel Folau, 12 Kurtley Beale, 11 Marika Koroibete, 10 Bernard Foley, 9 Will Genia, 8 David Pocock, 7 Michael Hooper (c), 6 Ned Hanigan, 5 Rob Simmons, 4 Izack Rodda, 3 Allan Alaalatoa, 2 Folau Faingaa, 1 Scott Sio

Last season Australia managed to win the dead rubber against New Zealand, but that was at home, the Wallabies were playing better back then, and New Zealand was missing a few key guys (including Beauden Barrett).

This year New Zealand destroyed Australia in the Rugby Championship, beating them by 25 and 28 points respectively. In each of the two games Australia’s defense seemed unable to stop the speed and versatility of New Zealand’s back line.

The Wallabies did show some good things in the recent rugby Championship and probably should have won one more game (Argentina at home comes to mind), but overall they were poor. The team is not clicking right now and what`s worse, they will be without a couple of key players coming into this game. Missing some of your main guys against New Zealand is something most teams pay for in most of the cases.

Having the experience of losing the dead rubber last year, New Zealand should me more focused this time around. The super strong lineup they will field is proof of the fact that they are motivated to win this clash. The All Black bench is scary good as well, particularly with Aaron Smith and Brodie Retallick set to come in after the 50th minute or so.

The fact that McKenzie and Barrett are both starting in this game for NZ should give Australia chills. The Wallabies struggled badly with the pace of New Zealand’s back line this year, and now will have to face two of the speediest players in the world right from the start. Look for fakes, dummies, and line breaks galore from those two.

New Zealand did have a few ups and downs this year but has generally been at its usual exceptional level, and should have too much for this shaky Australian side on Saturday morning in Yokohama. Even if the Wallabies have a good day and manage to keep the game close in the first half, the All Blacks bench is still more than capable to pile up the points in the last half an hour. The line is currently set at 15.5 points and it would have been covered easily in both meetings played a couple of months ago in the Rugby Championship.

My tip is New Zealand to cover the 15.5 handicap. This is the current line at most bookies even if odds are not even, but the line does seem to be moving towards 16 / 16.5 points. Prediction: New Zealand – Australia 42 – 18.

Pick: New Zealand -15,5
Odds: 1.85 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 9
Possible profit: 7.65
Event date: 27 October