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New Zealand – S. Africa

All Blacks Springboks betting preview

New Zealand will host South Africa on Saturday morning (European time) in the second round of the 2019 Rugby Championship. The competition is shortened this season due to the World Cup and will only consist of three rounds. Both teams got of to winning starts on the opening day last week.

The All Blacks started off with a 20-16 win over Argentina in Buenos Aires last Saturday. The win came harder than New Zealand would have liked, and the All Blacks were quite disappointing in the second half, but it was understandable given the fact that some key players were rested. You would have expected New Zealand to play better for sure, but they did the job and will now focus on the bigger test against the Springboks, as they search for their fourth straight Rugby Championship title.

South Africa put on a really good showing in the opening round, beating Australia 37-15 despite resting a fair number of important players – although Australia did the same. The Springboks are definitely showing progress since Rassie Erasmus took over as coach last year, and they will fancy their chances for an upset on Saturday. Surely the Boks will draw confidence from the fact that they actually won in New Zealand last year (and were inches away from doing the double), even though overall they lost 7 of the last 8 meetings.

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Team news & lineups:

The All Blacks will recall their big names for this game, and the lineup looks pretty close to the best one available – if there is such a thing for New Zealand. There will be some position shifts with Barret moving from 10 to 15, and Smith from 15 to 14. South Africa will also ring the chances and call up their main guys, even though there are still a couple of names missing.

New Zealand: 15 Beauden Barrett, 14 Ben Smith, 13 Jack Goodhue, 12 Sonny Bill Williams, 11 Rieko Ioane, 10 Richie Mo’unga, 9 TJ Perenara, 8 Kieran Read (c), 7 Matt Todd, 6 Shannon Frizell, 5 Samuel Whitelock, 4 Brodie Retallick, 3 Owen Franks, 2 Codie Taylor, 1 Joe Moody

South Africa: 15 Willie le Roux, 14 Cheslin Kolbe, 13 Lukhanyo Am, 12 Damian de Allende, 11 Makazole Mapimpi, 10 Handré Pollard, 9 Faf de Klerk, 8 Duane Vermeulen (c), 7 Pieter-Steph du Toit, 6 Kwagga Smith, 5 Franco Mostert, 4 Eben Etzebeth, 3 Frans Malherbe, 2 Malcolm Marx, 1 Steven Kitshoff

Until last year South Africa was riding a horrible run against the All Blacks, losing 6 games in a row including two by record margins in 2016 and 2017. However, last year the Boks finally rose to the challenge, beating New Zealand 36-34 at today`s venue (Wellington) and barely losing 30-32 at home via a last minute try.

The under / over line for this game is currently set at 51.5 points, and that total seems to be a bit on the low side. Since the 2015 World Cup these two teams played 6 times, and 5 of the meetings went well over 51.5 points. The other one saw 49 points. On average, 60.67 points have been scored per game in those six meetings!

There`s no reason to expect anything less than another mouthwatering, entertaining clash between these two Nations here. There should be plenty of attacking rugby and we know the All Blacks will put points on the board, but South Africa is also looking very good and confident recently, and their offense has been a particular strength. Just one week ago they put 37 points past Australia.

New Zealand’s lineup also has the potential to be a particularly explosive one with Barrett’s move to 15. The All Blacks lose a bit of defense, but gain a lot of offense with two exceptional playmakers on the field (Barrett and Mo`unga). The Springboks will have their hands full when the All Blacks counter attack, and also at the breakdown when the All Blacks will have explosive attacking options on both sides due to having two playmakers.

Weather should be good for rugby with temperatures set to be around 15 °C. Although it will probably be humid in Wellington, there is no rain expected, and that should help a fast paced game.

As always the All Blacks must be fancied to win, and they will very likely do just that. But South Africa is looking sharp and will draw confidence from the last meetings. If the All Blacks are not at the top of their game, the visitors could put some real pressure.

My tip will be over 51,5 points to be scored. I would not be surprised if the line goes up – in fact, I expect it, and I would take this bet sooner rather than later. If you will be unfortunate enough to not find this line, I`d probably go as high as 54 points, maybe decrease 2 units from the bet for each extra point. Prediction: New Zealand – South Africa 34 – 26.

Pick: over 51,5 points
Odds: 1.91 @ 1xBet
Stake: 10
Possible profit: 9.10
Event date: 27 July

About Rostick

Former bookie & water polo player. Rugby Union expert. - EDITOR INFO & STATS
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