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Nick Kyrgios will face off against local favorite Richard Gasquet in what is definitely the most anticipated Roland Garros third round match to be played on Friday.
Kyrgios has definitely stepped up his performance this year and he has been surprisingly excellent on the European clay. Nick entered Roland Garros on the back of a marvelous tournament in Rome, where he dismantles Raonic and played a massive match against Nadal, hitting some amazing shots. It took every bit of energy and grit for Nadal to finish off that match 2-1 in what was arguably Rafa’s best match in a long while. Here in Paris, Nick easily defeated Cecchinato and Sijsling without losing a set. He was a bit out of rhythm against Cecchinato in the first round, but utterly demolished Sijsling in the second, losing just 6 games.
Gasquet had to start his season in February, after struggling with injuries and after winning Montpellier, the first tournament played after his return, he failed to win 3 matches in a row until now. He had a pedestrian clay court season and so far he was not tested in Roland Garros, playing against Bellucci and Fratangelo – winning both matches clearly in straight sets.
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Gasquet leads the Head 2 Head 4-2 (2-0 on clay, 1-0 on outdoor clay), but it`s safe to say Kyrgios is a different player now, including on the red dirt – so I don`t think the H2H holds much relevance here. Nick won the last meeting, which took place this year in Marseille and it was a dominant 6-0 6-4 victory, which makes the Head 2 Head even more irrelevant.
Kyrgios has upped his game big time lately, he`s playing at a level that could get him to a Grand Slam semifinal and I can see him winning against a Gasquet that is still not at his best. The Frenchman plays at home, but he was never solid in Roland Garros, where he failed to reach a single quarterfinal. It will be difficult for him to face this unleashed version of Kyrgios.
The Australian has served fantastic this season clay, including this week in Paris, where he won an average of 75% points on serve! He has a plus 46 differencial in winners / unforced errors, while for Gasquet the number stands at just 23.
An average returner like Gasquet will have big problems against the super effective Kyrgios serve. Richard will likely struggle a lot on the return, while the big shot, high risk style of Kyrgios should earn him solid chances at least once or twice per set on the Gasquet serve. I can`t see a Head 2 Head advantage for Gasquet in terms of styles of play, it actually looks more like a disadvantage at the moment, so it will likely be hard for him to find answers. My tip here is Kyrgios to win. Prediction: Nick Kyrgios – Richard Gasquet 6-4 7-5 4-6 7-6.
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Pick: Kyrgios
Odds: 1.84 @ 1xBet
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 6.72
Event date: 27 May
