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Novak Djokovic will take on a second big server in a row after dispatching Gilles Muller yesterday. Milos Raonic however is set to be an even tougher opponent in this Australian Open quarterfinal.
Djokovic did not lose a set so far in this tournament and he`s looking as solid as he has ever been, surely playing his best tennis. He still needed to work against Gilles Muller last round though, confirming his “struggles” against big servers with big forehands – sure the win was never in doubt, but Novak managed just one break per set (barely) against a mediocre player at best. The good thing was that Nole kept up his intensity from the backcourt, so we`re not talking about a loss in form, just about the fact that he doesn`t quite like this type of opponent.
Raonic is exactly that, a big server with a big forehand, but at a totally different level than Muller. Milos needed 5 sets to overcome an inspired Feliciano Lopez last round, but those were the only two sets that Raonic lost here in Melbourne. The Canadian really stepped up his game last year, starting to finally win against the big boys, breaking Top 8 and posting a semifinal showing at Wimbledon – he`s confirming that form by playing his best tennis right now at the Aussie Open.
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Djokovic leads the Head 2 Head 4-0 (1-0 on hard), but when Raonic was in good shape he always gave Nole a fight. Djokovic won 6-2 6-3 against a tired Raonic in Paris a few months ago, but the last Grand Slam meeting was a hard fought 7-5 7-6 6-4 win at Roland Garros 2014, on clay!
Surely you can see where this preview is going – I am going to tip Raonic to cover the handicap. I fully expect Djokovic to win, probably in 3 sets, but it`s very unlikely he will have it easy. Raonic is serving lights out and he`ll get a lot of easy games on this moderately fast surface, especially in the evening session when balls are flying faster. Djokovic had a very tough time to break Muller`s serve in the 4th round and surely he`ll have even more problems against a guy like Raonic.
The 6 point handicap means that we will at least get our money back with one break for Djokovic in 2 sets and a tiebreak in another, something that looks like the worst case scenario for Raonic on paper. I`m also taking into account that Milos has game and he`s in terrific form, so it`s very possible to get one break of serve himself, maybe even a set. My tip is Raonic + 6 game handicap. Prediction: Novak Djokovic – Milos Raonic 7-6 6-4 7-6.
Pick: Raonic +6 game handicap
Odds: 1.83 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 6.64
Event date: 28 January
