Djokovic – Federer

Novak Djokovic will attempt to become the first player in the ATP era to complete the Golden Masters, as in winning all 9 current Masters series events, when he takes on Roger Federer in the Cincinnati final.

After a couple of tough years Djokovic finally got his mojo back by winning Wimbledon, and will look to build on that by winning a second big tournament in space of one month. However, it can`t be said that Nole played particularly great after Wimbledon. He was knocked out in the R16 in Toronto by Tsitsipas, and he had plenty of problems here in Cincinnati despite reaching the final. Djokovic defeated Johnson, Mannarino, Dimitrov, Raonic and Cilic this week, but he lost a set in each of the last 4 matches.

Seven time Cincinnati champion Federer didn`t necessarily play great either, but he did win his matches much easier than Djokovic. Federer defeated Gojowczyk, Leo Mayer, Wawrinka and Goffin, losing just one set – in the quarterfinal meeting against Wawrinka (6-7 7-6 6-2). That was a match Federer could have lost, as he was arguably second best for most of the first two sets, but eventually pulled of a deserving victory. In the semifinals he benefited from the retirement of Goffin at the score of 7-6 1-1 for Roger.

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Djokovic leads the H2H 23-22 (19-18 on hard) and won the last two meetings, the last one being in early 2016 at the Australian Open. However, Federer leads the H2H 3-0 at Cincinnati, where he did not lose a set against Nole and even bageled him once in 2012. The fact that this match is played in Cincy gives Roger a matchup advantage here.

Cincinnati is definitely one of the favorite hunting grounds for Federer on the tour, as he won 7 finals out of 7 he played here. His game is perfectly suited for the faster surface here, and he always feels comfortable and confident in Cincy.

In complete contrast with Federer, Djokovic has never won Cincinnati and lost all his 5 finals here. Even though Djokovic has a mountain of experience, a fair case can be made that a player like him losing 5 finals out of 5 must have something to do with pressure. He will have a ton of pressure again today as he tries again to complete the career Golden Masters.

As previously mentioned neither player has been quite at his best here, and in all honesty it is Djokovic who usually wins these meetings – as opposed to Federer winning when both players are at their maximum level. However, this is Cincinnati, where Roger always raises his game in the finals, while Djokovic falters. Also, it is important to note that Federer still played better tennis than Nole this week even if he wasn`t perfect.

Djokovic really struggled to win his matches right from the start of the tournament, and he looked very vulnerable in the semifinals against Cilic. Djokovic somehow claimed the first set 6-4 despite winning just 8 points against serve, also having to dodge break points on his own delivery. The Serbian was then completely dominated by Cilic in the second set in a way that a Nole in top form would never be dominated (even in a moment of his level dropping), falling behind 1-5 and having no response against his opponent. Eventually, he regained composure and edged Cilic in a tough three setter (6-4 3-6 6-3), but all in all Nole showed a lot of weaknesses.

Federer had his biggest struggle in the quarters against Wawrinka, failing to find any rhythm on the return and being 2 points away from losing in the second set tiebreak, a point at which Waw was looking like the better player. He didn`t particularly impress against Goffin in the semifinals either, especially since Goffin, while playing well, was hurt.

Roger had serious (and surprising) problems with his return this week, winning 3 of his last 4 sets in tiebreaks. In the last 5 sets he played (Mayer, Wawrinka, Goffin) he broke serve just twice, at the end of the Wawrinka match when Stan collapsed.

On the bright side, Federer has served very well this week, something which is always an indication of his confidence and potential in a tournament. The Swiss has not been broken so far, and in fact has not been broken in his last 97 service games in Cincinnati (!!!), dating back since the 2014 final.

Djokovic has just not been playing that well this week and even if Federer can play better himself, he has been at a better level and he has been serving lights out. Adding the fact that Cincinnati is Federer’s back yard and Djokovic’s kryptonite, chances are Roger will win this match. Prediction: Novak Djokovic – Roger Federer 6-7 4-6.

Pick: Federer
Odds: 1.88 @ Sbobet
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 7.04
Event date: 19 August