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The NBA Western Conference finals will move in Oklahoma City for two games, with the series currently tied at 1-1 after the two teams split their two meetings in Golden State. The Warriors are rated as 2,5 point spread favorites to win on the Road in Game 3 and re-claim home court advantage.
After playing some fantastic basketball to defeat San Antonio Spurs 4-2 in the semifinals, OKC took that momentum right into Game 1 against the Warriors, coming back from a double digit deficit to claim the first win of the series. However, OKC was blown out by 27 points in Game 2, despite Kevin Durant having a monster night. They were down by almost 40 at one point.
Golden State had a bit of a scare in Game 2, as Steph Curry hurt his elbow, but he was just fine at the end of the game and he assured fans that he`s at 100% for Game 3, despite nursing a bit of a swelling. Game 3 was another exhibition of what this incredible Warriors team can do, but after losing Game 1 they have no other option but to win at least one of these two road games in OKC. Game 3 looks like the best moment to do it, as they are riding momentum and definitely don`t want to go in Game 4 facing a potential 3-1 deficit.
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Many people thought OKC became favorite after winning Game 1, despite Durant having an unusual quiet night. However, that win was a bit circumstancial, Golden State had a huge lead but got a bit loose in the 3rd quarter. OKC got blown out in Game 2 even if Durant played great. Westbrook was quiet, but that`s a habit for him against Golden State. He had just one great quarter in 5 meetings this season, it was the 3rd quarter of Game 1 when he led the OKC comeback.
OKC has one chance to keep this series close and that`s to keep turnovers down and outrebound Golden State by 15 or 20. In game 2 they could not dominate under the paint as they usually do and if Golden State matches them in rebounding for the remainder of the series, OKC is done. It remains to be seen if the Warriors found an answer to OKC’s big men or if it was more of a fluke.
Winning in OKC is never easy, but Golden State is the obvious favorite and a 2 point spread seems reasonable. Spurs had these spreads on the road at Thunder in the semifinals and Golden State definitely has a better chance than the Spurs had.
I`m going with the better team here, I can`t see Golden State putting themselves in a precarious position to be 1-2 down with a game coming up in OKC. It will probably be close, as most games between the two were this season, but Golden State won 4 out of 5 for a reason. Look for Steph Curry to shine again and my tip is Golden State to cover a 2 point spread. Prediction: Oklahoma City Thunder – Golden State Warriors 100 – 107.
Pick: Warriors -2
Odds: 1.85 @ Sbobet
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 6.80
Event date: 22 May
