Opelka – Mayer

Local favorite Reilly Opelka will take on Leonardo Mayer in a late night match on Thursday, in the first round at 2019 Indian Wells Masters event.

The 2.11 m tall Reilly Opelka, owner of one of the biggest serves on tour, is having a breakout year so far. The American started the season with some good results before claiming the best performance of his career by winning the title in New York a few weeks ago (defeating Isner along the way). Since then he only played one other tournament, in Delray beach, where he lost in the second round to Del Potro.

Leo Mayer is not having a very good 2019. The Argentinean won consecutive matches just once this year (in Auckland back in January), getting bounced out in the first or second round at the 6 other tournaments he entered. After the Australian Open Mayer moved on the South American clay, where his results were poor. This will be his first match on hard courts since mid-January.

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Opelka leads the H2H 1-0, surprisingly winning the only meeting back in 2017 on clay. The surface should favor him here, as he`s a natural hard courter, while Mayer – although an all rounder – is more suited for clay. Opelka might also have a matchup advantage, given the fact that Mayer has never been known to play well against big servers.

A research of Mayer`s H2H against current and former big servers will reveal that he is 0-1 vs Opelka, 0-1 vs Raonic, 0-3 vs Isner, 0-1 vs Querrey, 3-4 vs Anderson, 0-1 vs Guccione or 0-1 vs Roddick, and 8-25 overall in sets against these guys. The only big server against whom Leo Mayer has a positive record seems to be Sam Groth, whom he leads 2-0.

Mayer definitely remains a dangerous player on his day, on any surface, against anybody. But “his day” is very rarely seen these days, and there are no indications suggesting he could be in for a strong Indian Wells.

Opelka is coming into this match in much better form, and he has matches under his belt on hard courts, while Mayer hasn`t played on hard since the Aussie Open. When you add Mayer’s traditional struggles against big servers, you have to feel that Opelka is a strong favorite in this match.

My tip will be Opelka to win. Prediction: Reilly Opelka – Leonardy Mayer 7-6 6-4.

Pick: Opelka
Odds: 1.60 @ Unibet
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 4.80
Event date: 8 March