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The first day of the Six Nations provides a mouthwatering clash between Scotland and England, with the Scots having seemingly their best chance in years to defeat their rivals and claim the Calcutta Cup – the trophy which is at stake every time the two sides play each other.
Scotland has clearly improved under Vern Cotter, starting with last years’ Six Nations when they were competitive and did not deserve the Wooden Spoon. Their best showing however was at the World Cup, where they qualified from the group stages and almost defeated Australia in the quarterfinals – with many people arguing that victory was stolen from their hands by the referee on the last play. Scotland is playing some nice, fast attacking rugby right now, but they are still vulnerable at the breakdown, on defense and in the scrum.
England will begin life under Eddie Jones, the manager that worked wonders in his three years with Japan, culminating with that excellent showing in the 2015 World Cup. While Jones had huge success last year, England did not, as they were knocked out in the group stages of the competition they hosted. Indeed, the group was very tough, but England could have definitely done better, not playing the World Class rugby they are capable off. The Three Lions called up some new faces for this Six Nations but not many and the team is still mostly the same.
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Team news & lineups:
Both teams will field similar lineups to the ones that played in the World Cup, but England will hope that a few new faces will provide a boost.
Scotland: 15 Stuart Hogg, 14 Sean Maitland, 13 Mark Bennett, 12 Matt Scott, 11 Tommy Seymour, 10 Finn Russell, 9 Greig Laidlaw (c), 8 David Denton, 7 John Hardie, 6 John Barclay, 5 Jonny Gray, 4 Richie Gray, 3 Willem Nel, 2 Ross Ford, 1 Alasdair Dickinson
England: 15 Mike Brown, 14 Anthony Watson, 13 Jonathan Joseph, 12 Owen Farrell, 11 Jack Nowell, 10 George Ford, 9 Danny Care, 8 Billy Vunipola, 7 James Haskell, 6 Chris Robshaw, 5 George Kruis, 4 Joe Launchbury, 3 Dan Cole, 2 Dylan Hartley (c), 1 Joe Marler
Many experts are picking Scotland to stay close or even win this, but to me it’s a classic case of deformed perception. That perception is that Scotland was brilliant in the World Cup and is on a high, while England was a disaster and is in shambles. However, this perception is vastly altered by the expectations that were set for the two sides.
The reality is that Scotland really played just one great game, the loss against Australia, which was more or less a fluke, favored by rainy weather, lucky bounces and an overall horrible day at the office for Australia. In the group stages they won the matches that they should have won, played well but not great and were trashed by South Africa. England on the other hand had a nightmare group, played competitive matches with Wales and Australia but fell short. One of those three power horses had to go out, it just happened to be England and the difference was incredibly small. Scotland would have never been as competitive as England in that group. Bottom line, England actually played better rugby overall if you really think about it, but circumstances create the impression that Scotland did.
England won the last six Head 2 Head meetings, all by 4 points or more. Last year in the Six Nations England won 25-13 at Twickenham.
The three Lions remain the better team here by a pretty wide margin and even if Scotland has indeed its best chance in years to win the Calcutta Cup, England will most likely break Scottish hearts again. The Scots are improving, but they still have a long way to go. England should kill the Scottish scrum and dominate the set piece play, while Scotland doesn’t have enough superiority (if any) on the wings in order to balance things out. England’s bench is also vastly superior to Scotland’s and I expect that to make a big difference.
The odds are absolutely fantastic for England to win and cover, so I will invest high stakes on my tip, which is England to win with a 4,5 point handicap. Expect a close one for 60 minutes or so, but England should run away with it in the end thanks to superior quality, superior bench and superior experience. Prediction: Scotland – England 18 – 26.
Pick: England -4,5
Odds: 1.91 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 9
Possible profit: 8.19
Event date: 6 February
