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Halep – Gauff



Simona Halep Coco Gauff Wimbledon betting preview

Simona Halep will meet the 15 year old American sensation Cori “Coco” Gauff in the Wimbledon fourth round on Monday.

Simona Halep is on the back of a marvelous 6-3 6-1 win over Victoria Azarenka, a match in which Azarenka made a lot of mistakes, but Halep was at a high level and played with excellent consistency. It was the best match in some time for Halep, who was not appearing to be in her best form recently. She lost in the Roland Garros QF’s to Anisimova, didn`t do much on grass before Wimbledon, and struggled in the first two rounds here against mediocre opposition like Sasnovich and Buzarnescu (against which she lost a set).

Cori Gauff has been one of the best tennis stories in a while at this tournament. Barely 15 years old (she`s born in March), the talented American shocked the world by passing qualifications and defeating Venus Williams, Rybarikova and Hercog on the main draw. She has shown everything you could have wanted from her so far: great strokes, good strategy and solid mental strength. She seemed down and out against Hercog in the third round, but came back from 3-6 2-5 (saving match points) to eventually win 3-6 7-6 7-5.

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The pair have never met before on tour. Grass should favor Gauff, as she is proving to be an excellent grass court player, while for Halep the green has always been her worst surface – although she can play well on it and does have a semifinal here back in 2014.

Gauff has been absolutely amazing so far, but Halep should be a bit too much for the young american.

Simona Halep is a former world number one, Grand Slam winner and one of the most consistent players on tour. She`s really a step above the opponents Gauff met so far. After all, Cori did have an easy draw, and almost lost against Hercog (not a special player) in the previous round. Hercog really should have won, but started playing awful once Gauff started to recover the second set deficit.

It`s not just the fact that Halep is obviously much better in terms of current skills, or that she`s so much more experienced. There are also physical differences, and there`s only so much you can do at 14-15 years old against one of the fittest players on tour, who happens to also be one of the best baseline defenders and counter-punchers. Halep`s defensive excellence will force Gauff to be more aggressive and find tactical answers, and this could make things go downhill quickly for such a young kid.

Unless Halep has a bad day at the office, there won`t be too much Gauff will be able to do against her. The Romanian played great against Azarenka and if she maintains this level, it should be an easy win for her – even if grass is her worst surface. It will be a plus for Halep that the courts are slower this year in Wimby.

Having finished the match analysis, the question must be put whether it`s better to go with a straight set wins here, or with the handicap. My first thought was the handicap, fearing that Gauff with all the excitement and the adrenaline could maybe snatch a set before getting blown out in the other two. But the line stands at -5 or -5.5 games, and that seems a tad too high.

Halep has the experience to hold down Gauff’s exuberance, and should be able to avoid getting into a position from which she could lose a set. My tip will be Halep to win in straight sets. I would never have priced Halep above 1.15 (at the most) to win this match, so consequently the odds for the 2:0 win are great value in my eyes. Enough value to go with stakes of 10/10 on this bet. Prediction: Simona Halep – Coco Gauff 6-3 6-2.

Pick: Halep 2:0
Odds: 1.64 @ Unibet
Stake: 10
Possible profit: 6.40
Event date: 8 July

About Rostick

Former bookie & water polo player. Rugby Union expert. - EDITOR INFO & STATS
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