Timisoara – Newport

Timisoara Saracens Newport Dragons betting preview

Timisoara Saracens from Romania will host Newport Dragons from Wales in Round One of the 2018 / 2019 Rugby Challenge Cup. The two teams have been drawn in a very strong Pool 1, alongside Clermont and Northampton Saints.

Timisoara (4 wins and 1 loss in Romania this season) are three time reigning Champions in Romania, and won the league last season after another solid domestic campaign. However, they have been disappointing in Europe, as they initially failed to qualify for the Challenge Cup, losing a tie against German side Heidelberger in the Spring. Fortunately for Timisoara, Heidelberger was disqualified, so the Romanians will enter the group stages as lucky losers. Still, they will have a tough time competing, especially after losing some financing and a few players in the off season.

Newport Dragons has had a few very disappointing seasons. Last year the Welsh side finished second to last in their Pro14 conference with just 2 wins in 21 matches, and over the last three seasons they have a disastrous record of 10 wins and 55 losses in the Pro14. This season the Dragons started a bit better and they have 2 wins in 6 games, but they were also helped by an easy schedule – as they already hosted arguably the three other worst teams in the division.

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Team news & lineups:

Timisoara will use its best available lineup here, while Newport will use some rotation, changing half of the team which played last week in the Pro14.

Timisoara Saracens: 15 Luke Samoa, 14 Daniel Vladut Zaharia, 13 Florin Popa, 12 Jack Umaga, 11 Catalin Fercu, 10 Jody Rose, 9 Gabriel Conache, 8 Randall Morrison, 7 Vasile Rus (c), 6 Vlad Neculau, 5 Ionut Muresan, 4 Michael Stewart, 3 Mesake Doge, 2 Eugen Capatina, 1 Sione Taupaki

Newport Dragons: 15 Zane Kirchner, 14 Dafydd Howells, 13 Tyler Morgan, 12 Jarryd Sage, 11 Adam Warren, 10 Josh Lewis, 9 Tavis Knoyle, 8 Ross Moriarty, 7 Nic Cudd, 6 Ollie Griffiths, 5 Lewis Evans, 4 Matthew Screech, 3 Leon Brown, 2 Elliot Dee (c), 1 Brok Harris

Timisoara has lost some of its strength this season due to losing a part of its financing, and also 3-4 key players as a result of this. They might not win the championship again in Romania, and their experience in the Challenge Cup is set to be a humbling one – especially against powerhouses like Clermont of Northampton.

Timisoara was disappointing in Europe over the last two years despite having a slightly better squad than now, so they are unlikely to challenge for any wins this year. However, they could be competitive at home against the Dragons.

This is definitely and by far the most accessible game for Timisoara in this group and the hosts will view it as the most important clash of the season. Expect full effort and intensity from the Romanians, while the Welsh visitors will not be all that interested in this match, and will also rest some players.

With this in mind, it might not be easy for the Dragons to run away with this game. It will be a difficult travel for them in Eastern Europe, they will be far less motivated than their opponents, and won`t field their best lineup.

Now, most European teams would expect to win big in Romania even in these circumstances, but the Dragons are not one of Europe’s good teams. They have been quite honestly a disaster in the past few years, and not just domestically, but in the Challenge Cup as well.

Two years ago the Dragons actually managed to lose in Russia against Enisey, and last year they played the same Enisey again, winning only by 15 points at home and by 7 points away. Enisey might be a bit better than Timisoara (as they are allowed to select all the best Russian players for Challenge Cup), but not by much.

The point spread looks pretty high here and a determined Timisoara side should be able to cover it. Even if they are far from the standard of Welsh Clubs, Timisoara is still a decent side with European experience and 8-9 regular Romanian Internationals in the match squad. My tip will be Timisoara to cover the +22.5 handicap. Prediction: Timisoara Saracens – Newport Dragons 16 – 31.

Pick: Timisoara +22,5
Odds: 1.93 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 7.44
Event date: 13 October

About Rostick

Born in '88. Running betting tips websites since 2007. Launched Betdistrict in 2013. Worked as a bookie for a year to spy on the other side. Rugby Union and NBA expert. Editor info & statistics.

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