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Villarreal and Liverpool will square off in the first leg of this Europa League semifinal, with the home side considered to be a small favorite by the bookies.
Villarreal has 2 losses and 1 draw in the last 3 matches, but the poor form can be attributed in some measure to them being pretty secure of the 4th place in the standings. The hosts are having a very good season and have been impressive particularly at home, posting a statline of 19 wins, 4 draws and 3 losses in all competitions. What’s more, Villarreal won all 6 European home games this season, allowing a single goal, last round against Sparta Prague – as Villarreal qualified with a 6-3 aggregate score.
Liverpool gained an awesome qualification for this semifinal, coming back from 1-3 to win 4-3 at home against Dortmund, after previously recording a 1-1 draw in Germany. While it is true that Liverpool might have not deserved to go trough, they did it in emphatic fashion and it helped improve their domestic form as well. Pool recorded 2 wins and 1 draw in England after the Dortmund match, scoring no less than 8 goals in 3 matches.
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Team news & lineups:
Baptistao is the only player that will definitely not be in Villarreal’s lineup, while Musacchio and Costa are doubtful. Liverpool continues to struggle with injuriez, having to play without Henderson, Can, Origi, Ings, Gomez, Sakho, Rossiter and possibly Benteke.
Villarreal: Areola – Gaspar, Bailly, Ruiz, Rukavina – Suarez, Castillejo, Bruno, Trigueros – Soldado, Bakambu
Liverpool: Mignolet – Clyne, Lovren, Toure, Moreno – Allen, Milner – Lallana, Coutinho, Firmino – Sturridge
Liverpool’s defense is clearly their Achilles heel, as the visitors allowed at least a goal in 8 of their last 9 matches, but on the other hand they scored in bunches, especially in the last few weeks. Villarreal is usually a side that relies on a rock solid defense, but it hasn`t been the case lately. Villarreal was involved in a lot of high scoring matches recently, including the tie against Sparta Prague, but the offense stepped up.
I do expect both sides to come into this game with a careful approach, looking not to concede a goal, but Liverpool will obviously be reasonably offensive, as they want an away goal and don`t know how to just sit back and defend. Liverpool is just too shaky at the back and Villarreal hasn’t been much better in defense either lately. Both teams can score goals and both have small issues with injuries in the center back area. Also, both will be desperate to score if they fall behind 0-1, a result that would be a disaster in such a close tie.
Look for a close match, with each side making a few errors at the back over the course of the 90 minutes. My tip is both teams to score and I will invest medium – high stakes on this bet on goals. Prediction: Villarreal – Liverpool 1-1.
Pick: Both to score
Odds: 2.00 @ William Hill
Stake: 7
Possible profit: 7
Event date: 28 April
