Wales – France

Wales and France will both want to end the 2018 Six Nations on a high when they square off Saturday evening at the Millennium Stadium, in the last match of this year’s competition. Both sides can finish second with a win, so there will be plenty to play for in Cardiff.

Wales has been pretty strong and impressive in this competition. Before the tournament there was plenty of talk about Wales having stagnated in the last few years, but the Welsh produced an entertaining and effective brand of expansive rugby, claiming some very solid results along the way. They made light work of Scotland and Italy at home, while on the road they suffered narrow losses at the hands of England (by 6) and Ireland by (10) – playing very well away from home against two of the Top 3 sides in World rugby.

France also surpassed expectations in this tournament and it seems that, given some time, this new look French side led by manager Jacques Brunel could finally get back at the level it once was. The French have shown top quality in defense so far in the tournament and were competitive in all games. They won against Italy (by 17) and England (by 6, last week), while the losses were close: by 2 points against Ireland and by 6 points in Scotland.

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Team news & lineups:

Wales will make a number of changes compared to the Italy game last week, bringing back a few key players in the fold like Biggar or Wyn Jones. France will make 3 changes to the lineup that beat England, one of them being due to captain Guirado`s injury.

Wales: 15 Leigh Halfpenny, 14 George North, 13 Scott Williams, 12 Hadleigh Parkes, 11 Liam Williams, 10 Dan Biggar, 9 Gareth Davies, 8 Taulupe Faletau, 7 Josh Navidi, 6 Justin Tipuric, 5 Alun Wyn Jones (c), 4 Cory Hill, 3 Tomas Francis, 2 Ken Owens, 1 Rob Evans

France: 15 Benjamin Fall, 14 Gael Fickou, 13 Mathieu Bastareaud (c), 12 Geoffrey Doumayrou, 11 Remy Grosso, 10 Francois Trinh-Duc, 9 Maxime Machenaud, 8 Marco Tauleigne, 7 Yacouba Camara, 6 Wenceslas Lauret, 5 Sebastien Vahaamahina, 4 Paul Gabrillagues, 3 Cedate Gomes Sa, 2 Adrien Pelissie, 1 Jefferson Poirot

France has definitely improved in this tournament, last week`s win against England was huge, and Les Bleus have not lost any of their games by more than 6 points so far. However, there is a big “but” here – and that`s the fact that the French played just one game on the road until now. That was against Scotland, and France was totally outplayed in the last 30 minutes of that one, only the good start allowing them to lose by just 6 points.

Playing on the road will be a much tougher proposition for the French than their home games against Ireland or England was – especially as Wales is pumping on all cylinders right now.

The Welsh are in good form, and Millennium Stadium has always been a fortress for them, as we could see earlier in the tournament in their 34-7 destruction of Scotland. They also match up pretty well against France, winning 5 of the last 6 H2H meetings (although France won the previous one last year in Paris, 20-18).

The matchup with France looks good for Wales particularly because the Welsh are one of the best teams at the breakdown, and that is exactly where France’s strength lies. If France won`t be able to dominate there like they did in the other games, and they shouldn`t, they will be in trouble.

The fitness factor might come into play in favor of Wales as well. While Wales has one less day of rest compared to France, and that is very important at this level, fact is they played Italy last round, so that wasn`t so tiring. France on the other hand had a mammoth game against England, in which they fought like crazy, and they were looking tired late on in that one – barely holding on to the win.

France is looking good and is on the up, but objectively speaking the French are simply still not good enough to win in Wales. The hosts should dominate this, win territory and possession, and eventually win by 12-16 points or so – maybe more, if France won`t have the fitness to keep up the intensity for the entire 80 minutes.

My tip here is Wales to cover the 8.5 point handicap. Prediction: Wales – France 28 – 13.

Pick: Wales -8,5
Odds: 1.92 @ 1xBet
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 7.36
Event date: 17 March