Wasps – Exeter Chiefs

Wasps and Exeter Chiefs will meet in the Aviva Premiership final, on neutral ground at Twickenham, and both teams will feel they are deserving of their place in the last act.

Wasps finished the regular season on the first place in the Aviva Premiership, which earned them a home semifinal against the weakest team in the playoffs, Leicester Tigers. However, that match was much more difficult for Wasps than it was expected to be, as they had to work their butts off and needed a late try to win by 1 point. The Wasps have not played that great in the last few months – they form dropped and they did not impress in the Premiership, while also getting blown out in the Champions Cup by Irish club Leinster.

Exeter ended the regular season second behind Wasps, even though the Chiefs had the same number of points. As opposed to Wasps, who lost some momentum recently, Exeter has just gotten better and better in 2017 and they are now riding a 16 (!!) match winning streak. Perhaps the most impressive win was in their last game, as they beat the freshly crowned European Champions and clearly the best team in Europe, Saracens, 18-16 at home.

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Team news & lineups:

The big news ahead of this clash is the absence of Australian superstar Kurtley Beale for Wasps. Exeter on the other hand with get back one of their best players, Woodburn, and he will be the only change to the team that beat Saracens.

Wasps: 15 Willie Le Roux, 14 Christian Wade, 13 Elliot Daly, 12 Jimmy Gopperth, 11 Josh Bassett, 10 Danny Cipriani, 9 Dan Robson, 8 Nathan Hughes, 7 Thomas Young, 6 James Haskell, 5 Matt Symons, 4 Joe Launchbury (c), 3 Phil Swainston, 2 Tommy Taylor, 1 Matt Mullan

Exeter Chiefs: 15 Phil Dollman, 14 Jack Nowell, 13 Ian Whitten, 12 Ollie Devoto, 11 Olly Woodburn, 10 Gareth Steenson (c), 9 Stuart Townsend, 8 Thomas Waldrom, 7 Don Armand, 6 Kai Horstmann, 5 Geoff Parling, 4 Dave Dennis, 3 Harry Williams, 2 Luke Cowan-Dickie, 1 Ben Moon

In the regular season Wasps beat Exeter at home by 5 points and got a draw away, but the last meeting was in early February and much has changed since then, with Exeter gaining momentum and Wasps losing some of it.

Exeter is pumping on all cylinders right now and they have been in brilliant form in the last months. Wasps on the other hand have lost some steam as the season came to an end and barely managed to beat Leicester at home in the semifinals, with Leicester being by far the worst team that qualified for the playoffs. Sure, the Wasps are still playing good rugby, but they haven`t been quite at their best and lacked consistency for sime time now.

Wasps are one of the most entertaining teams to watch in European rugby, as they play a fast paced game and love to develop wing attacks. However, they are inferior to Exeter in the scrum and forwards pack, and those are known to make the difference in the big games. Look for the Chiefs to dominate the power game and milk a couple of extra penalties from the scrum.

The forwards pack could become an even more important advantage for Exeter if it will rain Saturday and / or at game time. Weather reports say there is a real possibility for that.

Exeter seems (and is, at the moment) like a more trustworthy team, less prone to errors and better glued together. On top of that, their form has been much better than Wasps’ in the last months and they played much better rugby in the semifinals as well.

Odds on Exeter have gone down and continue to drop, something which makes a lot of sense considering the circumstances. They seem to be the better and more in form team right now, and Wasps will also be hurt by the absence of Kurtley Beale. One extra advantage for Exeter might be the fact that they have the experience of playing in the final last year (lost honorably to Saracens), so they could be more comfortable in the moment than Wasps.

My tip is Exeter to win, and an 8 unit stake on this bet seems like a reasonable investment. Prediction: Wasps – Exeter 24 – 29.

Pick: Exeter Chiefs
Odds: 1.91 @ Bwin
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 7.28
Event date: 27 May