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One of the biggest sporting events there is, the Rugby World Cup, will take off this Friday with host nation England meeting the spectacular and emerging Fiji – a mouthwatering prospect and hopefully a good indication on what is to come in these next six weeks. With virtually hours away from the kick off, many questions remain about what is dubbed to be the biggest and most evenly matched Rugby World Cup ever.
Pool A: Australia, England, Wales, Fiji, Uruguay
Pool B: South Africa, Samoa, Scotland, Japan, USA
Pool C: New Zealand, Argentina, Tonga, Georgia, Namibia
Pool D: Ireland, France, Italy, Canada, Romania
Can anybody stop New Zealand?
The All Blacks are overwhelming favorites to win it all, with the best outright odds for them to lift the trophy for a second time in a row being 2.20 at Youwin. And it`s hard to argue with the bookies. New Zealand has been utterly dominant for the better part of the last 5 years, barely losing a handful of games. The All Blacks are clearly the best team in the world, they have Dan Carter back (he missed the 2011 World Cup) and have a very easy group, which they will surely top (maybe even look for a record breaking win against Namibia) – so their chances seem to be excellent. However, New Zealand will know that they will get a very tough draw in the KO stages and that no team has ever won two consecutive World Cups.
Will England be able to make use of home court advantage for a historic run?
Only one time in the history of the World Cup has a team from the Northern Hemisphere won the trophy and that was England back in 2003 – with Jonny Wilkinson entering British sporting history with that deciding last minute extra time drop goal in the final with Australia. England has a top team and just defeated Six Nations champions Ireland, but the Three Lions have the youngest squad in the competition and a nightmare draw in the pool stage – Australia, Wales and Fiji, in addition to lowly Uruguay. Lack of experience and too many early tough matches make England a very risky proposition to win the trophy and it would not be a shock to see them having a disappointing World Cup, despite being the second favorites to win it all.
Best of the rest
South Africa is priced as the third favorite and that is a mistake, as the Springboks really seem like the only team able to upset New Zealand. They did it before and played competitive, spectacular matches against the All Blacks in the last two Rugby Championships. With little to no weak spots, South Africa can shock New Zealand in the semifinals if they manage to keep the same level of intensity for 80 minutes.
Australia has improved over the last couple of years after a period of struggles and will be there in the discussion. If they win their group over England, an accessible road can send them to the finals – but they don`t have what it takes to beat South Africa or New Zealand there.
Ireland are the reigning Six Nations champions and will battle it out with France for the first place in Group D – a huge objective, as the second placed team will meet New Zealand in the next round. Ireland is the steadier team and they have more versatility on the wings, but you never know with France – they could win the World Cup as easily as they can get knocked out in the Group stage.
Dark Horses
Wales has lost a lot of steam, they are a weakened side and after being unlucky to finish 4th in 2011, they will not even pass the Group stage this time around (meeting England and Australia is not helping). In these circumstances, Argentina would normally be the highest fancied dark horse in the competition, but they are ravaged by injuries and it just doesn`t seem to be their year – though they should be able to qualify from an accessible Group C.
Scotland and Italy will likely disappoint, but watch out for excellent performances by the emerging, fast paced Pacific sides: Fiji or Samoa and, on a lesser extent, Tonga. These teams are capable of upsetting the odds and will often make excellent value betting material throughout the tournament.
We`re just happy to be here
Canada, Japan, USA, Georgia, Romania, Namibia and Uruguay would all be thrilled if they can get a win, but have zero hopes outside of that.
From this bunch, look for the emerging Georgia to make an impression in a weak Group C, beating Namibia, potentially upsetting Tsonga and maybe even pushing the injury-ravaged Argentina. Romania should be able to upset Canada, taking advantage of a one sided positive H2H and of Canada’s poor form – but most of all exploiting their huge superiority over Canada in the scrum. Japan will beat the United States and will give Scotland a fight, while Namibia and Uruguay will lose all their matches by massive margins.
Best outright odds for the 2015 RWC favorites
- New Zealand – 2.20 @ Youwin
- England – 5.50 @ Unibet
- South Africa – 8.00 @ Unibet
- Australia – 8.50 @ Unibet
- Ireland – 11.00 @ Unibet
- France – 19.00 @ Unibet
Tips: early first round matches to keep an eye on
England – Fiji, 18.09
Spectacular Fiji should cover the 24,5 point spread in an overish World Cup opener.
Tonga – Georgia, 19.09
Rugged, strong and defensive Georgia will likely cover the +10,5 handicap, but at odds as high as 5.00 they are also worth backing to shock Tonga in an upset win.
France – Italy, 19.09
Italy has better chances for an upset than the 8.00 odds suggest, but only go for value, not for the spread – as both teams are mercurial and France is capable of anything.
Samoa – USA, 20.09
All out attacking Samoa should cover the spread against an emerging, but still poor USA team.
Outright prediction: Back South Africa to win the World Cup with odds @ 8.00 by Unibet.
Very nice preview
I think new zealand wins