Bayern – Atl Madrid

Diego Simeone’s Atletico Madrid will try to protect a 1-0 first leg advantage in this Champions League semifinal, but Bayern Munich will be confident of asserting its superiority at home.

Bayern hasn`t been particularly impressive in the last weeks / months, despite the fact that they were generally able to claim comfortable wins. Bayern had problems against both Juventus and Benfica in the earlier Champions league rounds and they lost 0-1 in Madrid, a very difficult result to overcome considering that they did not score away from home. Bayern is coming after a 1-1 home draw against Gladbach, prolonging the fight for the title in Bundesliga. Guardiola rested most of his key players in that match.

Diego Simeone tried to rest players himself over the weekend, but he was forced to field the trio of Griezmann, Torres and Koke shortly after halftime to claim a hard fought 1-0 win over Rayo Vallecano. It was the 4th consecutive 1-0 win for Atletico, their 6th consecutive win with a clean sheet and their 7th consecutive win overall. Atleti is working like a well oiled machine right now, hitting top form exactly at the right time in the season.

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Team news & lineups:

Robben and Badstuber continue to be unavailable for Bayern Munchen, while Ribery is a doubt. Atletico Madrid can`t count on Godin and Tiago, both neither of them has been in the starting lineup for quite some time.

Bayern Munich: Neuer – Lahm, Martinez, Boateng, Alaba – Vidal – Costa, Muller, Alcantara, Ribery – Lewandowski

Atletico Madrid: Oblak – Juanfran, Gimenez, Hernandez, Luis – Niguez, Gabi, Fernandez, Koke – Griezmann, Torres, Carrasco

Atletico may be well respected across the world right now, but when the big matches arise they are always underrated – I myself made that mistake in the reverse leg against Barcelona. Fact is that Atleti is a legit Champions League contender and I actually believe them to be the main favorites to lift the trophy this season.

There is no reason to trust Bayern to turn around a 0-1 deficit here, despite them having better individual players and playing more attractive football. The first leg result is extremely difficult to turn around with the (idiotic) away goals rule. Atletico allowed more than 1 goal in a match exactly 6 times this season in all competitions (3 times against Barcelona) – that`s 6 times in 53 matches and right now they are playing better than ever.

Look for Diego Simeone to frustrate Bayern Munchen with his brilliant defensive tactics, just like in the first leg and just like he did in the tie against Barcelona. Sure, Bayern at home is a force to be reckoned with, so it will obviously not be easy – but I believe Atleti has a good shot of banging in a goal on the break, which will make Bayern’s mission almost impossible. My tip is Atletico to qualify. Prediction: Bayern Munich – Atletico Madrid 1-1.

Pick: Atletico Madrid to qualify
Odds: 1.73 @ Unibet
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 5.84
Event date: 3 May