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Monte Carlo kicks off the clay season in fashion. The dynamics of the games change and hot favorites on fast hard surfaces become outsiders. It is one of my favorite transitions because it has large impacts on odds, one example of which we can see in this match.
Tsonga has been going through a tough period lately and looks to come back strong but his game just is not at its best level yet. Plus, the slow surface in Monte Carlo really is not doing him any favors. His serve has less of an impact and opponents have more time to react to his explosive forehand and redirect to his weaker backhand. If points go longer Tsonga has less and less chances to win.
David Goffin has been a hope in the circuit for the past couple of years but has so far come short of expectations. He is currently 21 in the world but he is plagued by inconsistency. He had a pretty good end to the hard court season defeating Janowicz and Coric in Miami before losing badly to Nishikori. Goffin's game is much better suited to this surface. He likes rallies and feels good taking control from the back of the court. He also has some good defensive options that should have an impact against an aggressive Tsonga.
The two players met twice before, Tsonga leading 2-1. Tsonga won on grass twice and Goffin won on indoor hard in their last meeting in 2014 in Metz. This surface is just better suited to Goffin and he should win a tight encounter. Also to note that Tsonga is not probably at his best physically and mentally yet and should the game go the distance Goffind should have an added advantage. The odds are dropping on this but 1.95 is still good. My prediction: 6-4 6-4 Goffin.
Pick: David Goffin to win
Odds: 1.95
Bookmaker: ➾ Pinnacle
Stake: 7 units
Tipster: Ares
| TIPSTER: Ares | Total profit: +12.81 | Tips won: 21 |
| Country: Romania | Total yield: +4.78% | Tips lost: 22 |
| Speciality: Snooker | Total picks: 44 | Tips pushed: 1 |
| 12.08 | • ASA Targu Mures - ACS Poli Timisoara | 1.87 | 8 | ❌ | -8 |
| 12.08 | • Dominika Cibulkova - Alize Cornet | 1.57 | 9 | ❌ | -9 |
| 09.08 | • Fergal O'Brien - Luca Brecel | 2.2 | 4 | ❌ | -4 |
| 09.08 | • Steaua Bucuresti - Dinamo Bucuresti | 4.45 | 2 | ❌ | -2 |
| 08.08 | • CSU Craiova - Concordia Chaijna | 2.32 | 4 | ✅ | +5.28 |
| 07.08 | • Luca Brecel - Nigel Bond | 1.8 | 5 | ✅ | +4 |
| 06.08 | • Astra Giurgiu - West Ham United | 1.73 | 10 | ✅ | +7.3 |
| 09.07 | • Garbine Muguruza - Agnieszka Radwanska | 2 | 7 | ❌ | -7 |
| 07.07 | • Bryan B./Bryan M. - Bopanna R./Mergea | 4 | 5 | ✅ | +15 |
| 01.07 | • Fernando Verdasco - Dominic Thiem | 2.73 | 6 | ❌ | -6 |
